The SEC’s member institutions oozed arrogance when they chose not to expand conference schedules in football, effectively saying, “Sure, we play four games nobody cares about, but we’re good enough to get two teams into the playoffs, anyway. Besides, it’s fun to beat up Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico State.”
Welcome to affirmation.
The college football playoff selection committee will come out with its inaugural rankings Oct. 28, and the SEC is in an early strong position to get two playoff teams into the four-team field. There are four SEC schools in the AP ranking’s top five (Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn), as well as No. 9 Georgia, which impressively has won two road games without its best player (Todd Gurley). The Bulldogs also are well-positioned for a playoff run because they have the easiest remaining schedule of the five SEC teams (see below), although the NCAA’s decision on Gurley ultimately will affect their conference title and playoff chances.
To this point, Florida State (ACC) is the only school that can be viewed as a lock for a playoff berth, and schools from the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Notre Dame all have things to overcome.
That analysis won’t please those who believe the SEC is overhyped and overrated. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini is among them, saying Monday that the SEC’s partnership with ESPN (which owns SEC Network) is “(not) good for college football. Anytime you have a relationship with somebody, you have a partnership, you are supposed to be neutral. It’s pretty hard to stay neutral in that situation.”
He’s right, of course. But TV contracts with sports leagues have created conflicts of interest for decades. It also doesn’t preclude that the SEC simply has more good teams than everybody else. Again.
The strongest argument against the SEC getting two playoff teams into the field: The conference’s ranked teams could beat each other up over the next six weeks.
This is where Georgia’s perceived advantage comes into play. Mississippi State still must play two highly ranked teams in the regular season. Ole Miss, Alabama and Auburn each play three.
Georgia? One. The Bulldogs will face current No. 5 Auburn on Nov. 15, and the game is in Athens. The Dogs’ other opponents: Florida (in Jacksonville), at Kentucky and home against Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech.
A look at the four SEC teams ahead of Georgia:
Mississippi State: It must go on the road to play Alabama and Ole Miss. Other opponents: Kentucky on the road; Tennessee-Martin and Vanderbilt at home. Projection: one or losses.
Ole Miss: The Rebels have to play at No. 24 LSU this week and have difficult home games against Auburn and rival Mississippi State. Other games: Presbyterian and at Arkansas. Projection: one or two losses.
Alabama: The Tide haven't been a good road team, losing in Oxford and barely escaping (14-13) at Arkansas. Their next two games: at Tennessee, at LSU. Even if Alabama wins both, it still must play Mississippi State and Auburn at home (with Western Carolina sandwiched in between). But the Tide are strong in Tuscaloosa. Projection: zero or one loss.
Auburn: The Tigers should sweep three home games (South Carolina, Texas A&M, Samford). But they must travel to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Not good. Projection: two losses.
Auburn is the only difficult remaining opponent for the Dogs. But Florida and Georgia Tech are rivalry games, which sometimes yield unexpected results. The improvement of the defense under coordinator Jeremy Pruitt and the running of Nick Chubb have kept Georgia in the hunt, but Gurley still gives them the best chance to win. He’s the best player on the field — when he’s on the field.
The SEC champion will be a playoff team. But a second team also could make it. FSU is the ACC’s only worthy representative. The Pac-12 has tumbled after showing three teams in the preseason top 11. It now has one: No. 6 Oregon (which lost three weeks ago at home to Arizona).
The Big Ten still has No. 8 Michigan State. But there’s doubt how high Sparty can climb with only one ranked opponent left (No. 13 Ohio State). The Big 12 has 10th-ranked TCU, followed by Kansas State (11) and Baylor (12). But it would take a series of falling dominoes above those three for the conference to get a playoff invite. Also, the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference title game.
Notre Dame has the best chance to keep the SEC from having two playoff teams. The Irish (7) dropped only two spots after losing a close game in Tallahassee (and on a disputed play). If they can sweep their next five — Navy (road), Arizona State (road), Northwestern, Louisville, USC (road) — they have a strong case. But that season-ender against the Trojans looms large.
Meanwhile, SEC officials sit back, watching, with their feet on the desk, smoking a stogie. It’s playing out just how they expected.
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