The pandemic altered the college football season in many ways: canceling games, keeping fans away, sidelining players and coaches, even moving the Rose Bowl to Texas.
But, amid all of that disruption, four familiar teams reached the College Football Playoff, and Friday’s semifinals games feature matchups that bring predictability to an unpredictable season.
One of the New Year’s Day semifinals pits Alabama, in the playoff for the sixth time in the event’s seven-year history, against Notre Dame, in the playoff for the second time in three years. The other semi matches Clemson, in the playoff for the sixth consecutive season, against Ohio State, in the playoff for the fourth time in seven years.
Those four programs have claimed 18 of the 28 CFP berths since the event started in the 2014 season and nine of 12 berths since 2018.
The Alabama-Notre Dame game (4 p.m., ESPN) will be played in Arlington, Texas, this season’s Rose Bowl site because of COVID-19 restrictions in Pasadena, Calif. The Clemson-Ohio State game (8 p.m., ESPN), a rematch of one of last season’s semifinals, will be played in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
Alabama is favored by 20 points and Clemson by 7-1/2. If both favorites win, the national championship game Jan. 11 in Miami would mark the fifth College Football Playoff meeting of Alabama and Clemson, the fourth in a championship game.
Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have accounted for 16 of the 28 CFP berths across seven years, compared with 12 by all other programs combined. Those three teams have won five of the six championships in the playoff era: two apiece by Alabama and Clemson, one by Ohio State.
All of this familiarity has amplified calls for the playoff to be expanded, perhaps to eight teams, maybe more, to open paths for new participants.
“If we’re going to do it, I would be much more in favor of saying, ‘All right, let’s go to 12,’” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Thursday. In such a scenario, perhaps the top four seeds would get first-round byes, he suggested.
“I just would rather go further than eight if we’re going to (expand),” Smart said. “I certainly think that if they did that, somebody within that back 5, 6, 7, 8 is going to win a national championship at some point.”
Gary Barta, the athletic director at Iowa and chairman of the playoff selection committee, was asked recently if he senses expansion is inevitable in light of complaints that the same teams and same leagues tend to dominate the four-team field year after year.
“I’m not going to predict if it will lead to an expansion,” Barta said. “What I can tell you is the reason there are complaints, and I say it with a smile on my face: It’s because people care. They care a lot. And so there’s always going to be disagreement when it comes down to the final grouping, but I’m really excited about … the four teams that were selected this (season).”
Playoff officials have long argued that the selection committee’s mandate is simply to pick the four best teams, not spread around the opportunities.
Credit: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
“No matter the name of the school or the name of the conference, the committee watches the games and fills those four spots with what the committee believes ... are the best four teams in the country,” Barta said.
But picking the top four is a subjective process, and in seven years no team from a “Group of Five” conference — not undefeated Central Florida in 2017, not undefeated Cincinnati this season — has been deemed worthy of a playoff shot.
This season, Alabama and Clemson were clear-cut choices as the top two seeds — the Crimson Tide scoring an average of 49.7 points per game while posting an 11-0 record; the Tigers’ only loss in 11 games coming to Notre Dame in early November without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
The other two playoff teams were at least somewhat debatable. The argument against undefeated Ohio State is that the Buckeyes played only six games, just two of them against teams with winning records, because of COVID-19 issues. The argument against Notre Dame is that the otherwise unbeaten Fighting Irish were routed 34-10 by Clemson in a rematch in the ACC Championship game, this time with Lawrence playing.
Still, it’s not just the 13-member playoff selection committee that sees No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Notre Dame joining No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson as the four best teams of 2020. The Associated Press poll and the coaches’ poll also have the same top four teams, in the same order.
In any case, the playoff has had unintended, although not necessarily unpredicted, consequences: a diminishment of other bowl games.
“My concern was, as soon as we started to have playoffs, that all the focus would be on the teams in the playoff and there would be a minimal amount of interest in some of the other (bowl) games,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said via Zoom this week. “I don’t think it’s healthy for college football players when players opt out, don’t play in bowl games and all those things, but it is what it is because most of the emphasis is on the playoffs. And in some ways that’s unfair to the other teams.
“I don’t really know what the perfect solution might be,” Saban said.
An expansion of the field to eight teams could allow four more bowls each year to be incorporated into the playoff as quarterfinals and could open a path for “Group of Five” teams, but it also might further diminish the rest of the bowl lineup. And as dominant as Alabama and Clemson have been, it might not make much difference beyond the quarterfinals.
Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell, whose team will play Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Friday, said playoff expansion could “keep the stakes high” and help alleviate the growing trend of players around the country opting out of bowl games. He said that’s a better argument for expansion “than just the ‘Hey, we need to give a team like Cincinnati an opportunity.’”
Under current contracts between the CFP and ESPN/bowls/sponsors, the four-team playoff is in place through the 2025 season. But there’s nothing to preclude those contracts from being renegotiated if the FBS conference commissioners, the CFP’s board of managers (consisting of 11 university presidents and chancellors) and other parties want to expand the format.
In September, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott proposed a one-year expansion to eight teams because of COVID-19, but the board of managers decided against pursuing the idea.
Among the voices calling for expansion recently: Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, whose team was ranked No. 5 by the selection committee and received a non-playoff berth in the Orange Bowl.
“It’s not because we’re fifth right now, but I think the playoff does need to get expanded because you’re not encompassing all the conferences, you’re not encompassing all the things,” Fisher said in an Orange Bowl videoconference. “It’s hard to judge in terms of schedule. You’re not crossing over who you’re playing and what you’re playing, getting a non-Power Five team in there to (play) a Power Five team.
“The only way you’re going to find out is expand the playoffs. I’m a traditionalist, and I never thought I would ever say that. … I think if you expand it more and include the bowl games in it – I think you have to, going into the future. I truly believe it’s got to happen.”
But for now, it’s Alabama vs. Notre Dame and Clemson vs. Ohio State and then the championship game between the winners.
In the playoff’s first six years, the 12 semifinals games have been decided by an average of 21.2 points. Only three semis have been closer than double digits, one of them Clemson’s 29-23 win over Ohio State last season.
“That was about as good a playoff game as you could be a part of,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said this week.
The CFP could use another one or two of those.
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