Weekend Predictions enters the first big holiday weekend with a losing record but some restored pride. I’ve posted a winning record with my picks against the spread in three of the past four weeks. Now I’ve got a real chance to make it to the second big holiday weekend with more wins than losses on the season.
You may not believe that, but like the Falcons, my record is what it is. Anyway, picking games is easier than winning them. My confidence is holding up better than the Falcons’ offensive line.
I held my nose last week while picking a bunch of favorites. I was rewarded with a 7-3 record ATS that included only one win with an underdog. I do love the ‘dogs. I love being right more.
Falcons (-2½) at Jaguars
Seemingly everyone except Jaguars team owner Sahid Kahn knew that coach Urban Meyer would flop in the NFL. We’ll see if Kahn admits his mistake and cuts Meyer loose so quarterback Trevor Lawrence can work with a real NFL coach. Kahn probably would be able to entice the next coach with another No. 1 overall draft pick. The Jags (2-8) are in strong contention to finish with the NFL’s worst record again.
Are the Falcons (4-6) much better? The victory at New Orleans seems a long time ago after the Cowboys and Patriots ran them off the field. Those teams are good. The Jags are bad. The Falcons get their offense going against Jacksonville’s soft pass defense and cover the spread.
No. 1 Georgia (-35) at Georgia Tech
Georgia coach Kirby Smart said increased salaries for college football coaches come with higher expectations, prompting some of his colleagues to try the NFL: “I know it’s a tough atmosphere, but most people would say, ‘They pay you so much, so it doesn’t matter.’” Smart’s $7 million salary is higher than two-thirds of NFL coaches, and UGA has been an underdog 11 times in Smart’s six seasons (twice by more than a touchdown).
But maybe Smart is right that it’s less stressful to make a little more money as an NFL coach with the real possibility of losing every game.
Paul Johnson’s option tripped up Georgia during Smart’s first season in Athens. The Bulldogs won the next three games in the series by an aggregate score of 135-35. When my heart tugs at me to take Tech as a huge home ‘dog, my brain interjects with images of the surrender in South Bend. Bulldogs cover.
Troy (+6½) at Georgia State
Arkansas State couldn’t run the ball and threw two interceptions at Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves still covered the 16½-point spread. GSU’s possible bowl destinations are Mobile, Montgomery, Myrtle Beach, Boca Raton and the Dallas area. The Panthers cover against Troy and then hopefully play their next game somewhere warm near a beach.
Other college games of interest
No. 2 Ohio State (-8) at No. 5 Michigan
Smart should ask Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh if life is easier in the NFL. The 49ers once fired Harbaugh two years after he guided them to a Super Bowl. Michigan rewarded Harbaugh with a contract extension in January despite his 11-8 record over the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
He’s the first Michigan coach to start 0-5 against Ohio State. The Wolverines cover the spread against their hated rival, which might earn Harbaugh a bonus.
No. 3 Alabama (-19½) at Auburn
Last week Alabama coach Nick Saban said it’s “fine” that fans second-guess him and his assistants. This week, Saban went on his radio show and said what he really feels about “self-absorbed” fans who grumble about Bama not dominating: “When I came here, everybody was happy to win a game. Now we’re not happy to win a game anymore.” Bama keeps failing to cover when I pick them, so I’m siding with unhappy Bama fans in this one. I like Auburn with the points.
No. 6 Notre Dame (-19½) at Stanford
I’m resigned to Notre Dame making the College Football Playoff again. The scenario gains steam this weekend with Notre Dame winning convincingly, Michigan losing to Ohio State and Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State. That would move the Fighting Irish one spot closer to the four-team cutoff. I’d love it if the CFP shared its money pot with upstart Cincinnati over ultimate establishment-program Notre Dame. I’m not counting on it. Irish cover.
No. 10 Oklahoma (+4) at No. 7 Oklahoma State
The Bedlam rivalry likely will end once Oklahoma joins the SEC. “Whether you like it or not, I’m guessing that’s what’s going to take place,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy told the Tulsa World. Gundy is 2-14 against the Sooners, so he should like that just fine. Oklahoma is the pick.
No. 23 Clemson (-11½) at South Carolina
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said he’ll start recruiting from the transfer portal. Per the Greenville News: “The next thing you know we’re going to have mid-years (enrollees) leave because they’re third team or because someone yelled at them in mat drills. There are no barriers anymore in college football.” Poor Dabo must learn to navigate a college football landscape in which his unsalaried players have just a little more power. Luckily, Swinney has plenty of $100 bills he can spare to wipe his tears. Tigers cover.
Florida State (+2½) at Florida
Per Gatorsports.com, Florida defensive end Zachary Carter said: “We’re both fighting for bowl games, so it’s a pretty big game.” It’s come to this for two of the state’s three faded power 5 programs (Miami isn’t doing much better). Florida is 2-9 in its past 11 games against Power 5 opponents, and one of the victories was against Vanderbilt. Gators cover with interim coach Greg Knox, giving everyone another chance to pile on Dan Mullen.
Other NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (-3) at Colts
Colts defensive end DeForest Buckner on Tom Brady, Tampa Bay’s timeless QB: “If I’m playing football at 44, it means I’m broke.” Brady is breaking the spirits of everyone hoping that he would just go away, already. That’s why I already know I’ll regret taking the Colts and the points based on Brady’s so-so performance over the past two weeks.
Panthers (-2) at Dolphins
Panthers QB Cam Newton averaged only 5.6 intended air yards on his 20 pass attempts (throwaways excluded) during Sunday’s loss to Washington. Carolina coach Matt Rhule said that was a function of the game plan and had nothing to do with Newton’s declining arm strength: “I know that’s a narrative right now. That’s on us (coaches) to push that aside.” I don’t like the sound of that. Give me the Dolphins and the points.
Last week: 7-4 (57-62 season)
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