Falcons' rebuilding plans may be disrupted by NFL's labor strife

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and the owners appear to have dug in for the long haul. No deal appears reachable before the league's new business year starts on March 1.

"We have shared with [the NFLPA] the basic economic data to say the system isn’t working," Goodell said. "Right now, the important number to focus on is, since the 2006 agreement was struck, we have generated $3.6 billion in incremental revenue, additional revenue. [About] $2.6 of that has gone to the players.  The owners are actually $200 million worse off than they were in 2006. So the system is not working for at least one side of the equation. And that’s the point."

Barring an unforeseen early settlement, the proposed salary structure for 2010 and the uncertainty of 2011 could disrupt the Falcons’ rebuilding plans. The continued growth of the league also is at risk.

The economics seem at odds with professional football's vast appeal. The early overnight ratings on Super Bowl XLIV between New Orleans and Indianapolis were the highest in over 23 years, according to the Nielsen Co.

The early measurement gave the game a 46.4 rating. Last season's game, another dramatic gem between Arizona and Pittsburgh, had an overnight rating of 42.1, which later translated into 98.7 million viewers. Sunday's game drew the highest overnight rating since the 1987 game between Denver and the New York Giants.

To many, the mere idea of another sports labor squabble is abhorrent.

"Fans don't want to hear about well-to-do owners or well-to-do players squabbling about money," New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft said. "We have the greatest game in America. We've got to solve it."

While Major League Baseball, the NBA and NHL all saw work stoppages in the 1990s, the NFL has been reasonably peaceful since 1987. The current collective bargaining agreement was originally negotiated in 1993, was amended in 1998 and 2006 and was not due to expire until 2012. But in 2008, ownership used its right to opt out of the agreement two years early, setting up the current conflict.

The league had work stoppages in 1982 of 57 days and in 1987 for a month with three weeks of games played with "replacement" players. A lockout would be the doomsday scenario for both sides.

“You don’t make money by shutting down your business," Goodell said. "It’s a bad scenario for everybody."

The Falcons, hoping for the best, plan to continue building through the draft, without an over-dependence on acquiring free agents.

"I think it's not really going to have an effect on us," Falcons owner Arthur Blank said of the uncapped year.

Last season, the Falcons spent about $6.5 million under the $127 million salary cap. Also, former Falcon Michael Vick's lucrative contract, which cost the team $7.11 million last season, comes off the books.

With the uncapped year, teams are not obligated to spend at league minimum levels, which was $111 million last season.

"We have a program that we've been following in building this roster," Blank said. "We are working through free agency, but primarily through the draft. We'll continue to do that."

There are some big-name potential free agents on the market, like Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers. However, the pool will be diminished if no new agreement is reached by March 1. On that date, 2010 officially becomes an uncapped season, the threshold for unrestricted free agency jumps from four to six years and 212 players who would have been unrestricted free agents will be downgraded to restricted.

Teams may retain restricted free agents by by matching any offer they receive. Teams also receive compensation for any restricted free agent they lose.

Seven Falcons players could be hurt by the uncapped year. That group includes starting right tackle Tyson Clabo and right guard Harvey Dahl. Other players are reserve running back Jerious Norwood, punter Michael Koenen, reserve lineman Quinn Ojinnaka, safety Charlie Peprah and safety Jamaal Fudge.

The Falcons staff is currently working on evaluating the free agent pool. But fans should not anticipate a big splash like two seasons ago, when the team signed running back Michael Turner to a six-year, $34.5 million deal at the outset of the signing period. .

"I don't think you'll see the pool of players that you've seen in prior years," Blank said. "What you don't want to end up doing is chasing a limited pool [of talent] with a lot of money."

But the Falcons has not totally ruled out free agency. There is a decent stable of potential backup running backs as well as some defensive backs.

"There is a value that our general manager and our coaches put on each individual player," Blank said. "Whatever that value may be, we'll look at it and make decisions from there."

With the uncapped year, the Falcons would not be limited financially from making a big play for Peppers, a five-time Pro Bowl selection who could help stabilize their defensive line.

"Until free agency opens [on March 5th], we can't talk about [other players]," Falcons coach Mike Smith said.

Free agents aside, the Falcons will maintain their focus on the draft, which will be held over three days on April 22, 23 and 24.

"We are fortunate with our draft situation, giving the compensatory picks that we will have," Blank said. "We have five now and probably will end up with eight or nine picks. We are really excited about that."

Some analysts contend the NFL could be headed for a baseball model, where the richer teams hoard all-star talent.

A fear exists that New England, Washington and Dallas could become the New York Yankees of football. With lucrative stadium revenues, they all could easily outspend Buffalo, Cincinnati and Jacksonville and some of the league's smaller market teams for the best players.

But Blank believes that fiscal responsibility will take hold in the NFL, which saw its salary cap grow from $85.5 million in 2005 to $127 million last season.

Other ancillary affects of the uncapped year include:

• Teams would receive an additional transition player tag, which can be used to retain an unrestricted free agent. A transition player is eligible to sign a one-year deal for the average of the top 10 salaries at his position or 120 percent of his previous season's salary, whichever is greater.

• The final eight clubs in the playoffs will have restrictions on signing unrestricted free agents.

• All 32 teams will be excused from funding several player benefit programs.