To recap the Falcons’ offseason so far:
- They fired their head coach, Mike Smith, making the official announcement long after they had already hired a search firm for his replacement, which might've worked if word hadn't leaked out before the season's final game, with playoff implications. Kinda messy. Kinda Jets like.
- They restructured their front office, giving more responsibility to the assistant general manager (Scott Pioli) and taking some away from the actual general manager (Thomas Dimitroff), interesting in that Dimitroff hired Pioli (his close friend) after an ugly exit from Kansas City. Many are having a field day with this, casting this Dimitroff-Pioli theater as Caesar-Brutus. It doesn't help that none of the principles are speaking publicly, yet, either in English or Latin.
- In one of the worst timed announcements in sports history, the Falcons confirmed personal seat licenses (read: blackmail) in the new stadium will cost up to $45,000, or the equivalent of a really nice car. In short, owner Arthur Blank hopes the Atlanta fan base gives him 71,000 nice cars (plus the cost of the ticket and parking) for the right to watch a team that is 10-22 in the past two seasons. Such a deal.
- The leading coaching candidate may be Rex Ryan, who's coming off a 4-12 season. But he's entertaining. Blank likes entertaining. He can sell entertaining. He said this hire will be a football decision. But can he be objective with a new stadium to fill and the front office in flux?
About the coaching candidates: They’re not great. It’s one of those years with no must-have guy. The Falcons are talking to eight, but I believe there are only four legitimate ones. These are the four in my order of preference, not likelihood of being hired. The uncertainty of who’s doing the hiring — Blank or the Dimitroff-Pioli tandem — makes setting odds problematic.
1. Dan Quinn, Seattle defensive coordinator: He has coached the NFL's No. 1 defense for the past two seasons. That looks like manna for a franchise that finished 27th and 32nd in the past two, even if that was more the result of bad personnel than DC Mike Nolan. Some believe coach Pete Carroll or previous DC Gus Bradley should get more credit for the Seahawks' defense than Quinn, but he's clearly a young, bright coach in demand. Problem: He might be No. 1 on the Jets' list, and New York could be Quinn's preference, since he's from New Jersey.
2. Todd Bowles, Arizona DC: He has an impressive resume — an NFL assistant for 15 years, as well as two years in player personnel Green Bay. He has overseen a Cardinals defense that finished seventh and fifth, respectively, in points allowed the last two years. Problem: He may be the No. 1 target in Chicago. Arizona linebacker Larry Foote likened Bowles to his former DC in Pittsburgh, Dick LeBeau, telling the Chicago Tribune: "If you have been around them for five minutes you know they are a little different than the average coach. They both have one of those minds. And then from a personality standpoint, Todd has the 'it' factor."
3. Ryan: The fact his Falcons interview lasted five hours created news, even though that's a pretty standard length. It's not like they're interviewing for a guy to run the panini machine in the cafeteria. But Ryan creates that buzz. There's already Ryan/Falcons parody Twitter accounts. He is the least risk because he has had success as a head coach. But he's also the greatest risk because the Jets unraveled this year and he's the loudest personality. Ryan is a great defensive coordinator who never had a great quarterback in New York. But the bottom line: After consecutive AFC title games, he went 8-8, 6-10, 8-8 and 4-12. The Falcons just fired a coach, Mike Smith, who was terrific for five years (56-24, four playoff berths), then awful for two (10-22). Now they're going to hire a coach who was great for two and mediocre for four?
4. Josh McDaniels, New England offensive coordinator: If he's hired, the Falcons' football operations (Dimitroff, Pioli, McDaniels) will look like a Patriots' knockoff, except without the two most important pieces (Bill Belichick and Tom Brady). McDaniels has a huge ego. That doesn't put him in exclusive company in the NFL, but he doesn't have the resume to back up the ego. He ran into problems with several players in Denver, made roster mistakes and traded three draft picks to select Tim Tebow. The Belichick coaching tree hasn't been impressive: McDaniels, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini have all failed as head coaches. Houston's Bill O'Brien is the only success story, but he was a pretty good coach at Georgia Tech (1997-2002) long before he went to New England (2007) and then Penn State. The hope with McDaniels would be that he's learned from his mistakes in Denver — and is more capable than he showed.
If Blank is making the choice, I’m guessing it’s Ryan. If he’s not, probably one of the other three. At this point, nothing is predictable.
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