If the College Football Playoff was set now, the national semifinal in Atlanta’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl would be an all-SEC West matchup of No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Texas A&M.
But the playoff pairings are far from set, what with four weeks of regular-season games and the conference championship games still to be played before the playoff selection committee finalizes its rankings Dec. 4.
“There is so much more football to play,” Peach Bowl president and CEO Gary Stokan said. “It’s still so early.”
Eventually, the road will lead to Atlanta, where the Peach Bowl will host the biggest game in its 49-year history Dec. 31: a playoff semifinal pitting the No. 1 seed vs. No. 4 or, less likely, No. 2 vs. No. 3. This season’s other semifinal will be played in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz.
The playoff picture could change every week until Dec. 4 because of what happens on the field or in the 12-member selection committee’s meeting room.
“Our job is to carefully weigh in and discuss who each of us think are the best four teams and why,” committee chairman Kirby Hocutt, Texas Tech’s athletic director, said. “That is what we will do each and every week.”
So in this weekly update debuting today, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will track college football’s road to Atlanta. (And Glendale.)
THIS WEEK’S SNAPSHOT
The selection committee surprised no one this week by pegging Alabama, Clemson and Michigan — all undefeated — as the top three teams in its first Top 25 rankings of the season, in that order. Then it surprised almost everyone by placing once-beaten Texas A&M ahead of unbeaten Washington at No. 4 because of the Aggies’ tougher schedule.
If the top four remain unchanged, Alabama and Texas A&M would meet in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome because the No. 1 seed generally is assigned to the semifinal site nearest its campus. That would be Alabama’s first appearance in the Peach Bowl, “which would be kind of awesome,” Stokan said. Under this scenario, Clemson and Michigan would meet in the Fiesta Bowl.
Based on this week’s rankings, Stokan pencils in these potential pairings for the other “New Year’s Six” bowls if the season were over now: No. 5 Washington vs. No. 6 Ohio State in the Rose, No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 14 Oklahoma in the Sugar, No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 8 Wisconsin in the Orange and No. 10 Nebraska vs. No. 23 Western Michigan (currently the highest-ranked team from a group of five non-power conferences) in the Cotton.
But all of that is subject to frequent change.
THIS WEEK’S KEY GAMES
No. 1 Alabama at No. 13 LSU (8 p.m. Saturday on CBS): Yes, LSU has lost twice and has an interim coach. And yes, Alabama limited LSU star running back Leonard Fournette to 31 yards on 19 carries last season. Still, a road game at LSU is a formidable test for most teams, maybe even for Alabama. An LSU upset would leave four SEC West teams with one league loss apiece — provided Texas A&M and Auburn take care of business Saturday against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, respectively. An Alabama win, on the other hand, would keep the Tide alone at the top of the division standings and national rankings.
No. 10 Nebraska at No. 6 Ohio State (8 p.m. Saturday on ABC): Ohio State (7-1) needs to win to keep itself close to the top four. The Buckeyes' hopes for making the playoff hinge on winning at home against Michigan on Nov. 26, but they can't afford to stumble in the meantime.
THIS WEEK’S QUESTION
Will Washington move into the top four and a semifinal berth if it finishes the regular season unbeaten and wins the Pac-12 championship game?
Hocutt: "Winning a conference championship is significant and is important, and that's something that once we get to that point in the season we'll be able to evaluate and look at the totality of the season."
Stokan: "I think Washington, eye test-wise, has a good chance to win the Pac-12. And if they do, then they certainly would move into the top four. Having sat through a mock selection, one thing that came through loud and clear was conference championship really resonates with the committee and makes a difference."
HISTORY LESSON
This is just the third season of the College Football Playoff, but that is long enough to know that the selection committee’s initial rankings in late October/early November mean relatively little.
In the 2014 season, three of the top four teams in the committee’s first rankings — No. 1 Mississippi State, No. 3 Auburn and No. 4 Ole Miss — failed to make the playoff. But Ohio State, No. 16 in those initial rankings, not only made the playoff, but won the national championship.
And in the 2015 season, two of the top four teams in the committee’s initial rankings, No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Ohio State, failed to make the playoff. But Oklahoma moved up from No. 15 to reach the four-team field.
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