Until a few weeks ago, the most volatile area of the Mid-east — the Palestinian-Israeli conflict — was one of its quietest. But this just changed. The gruesome slaying of a Jewish family in the West Bank settlement of Itamar — including a mother and her young children — shocked Israelis from across the political spectrum and reduced chances of a settlement freeze in the near future.
Since then, Israeli airstrikes against targets in Gaza in response to Qassam rocket fire into southern Israel have killed innocent civilians, and there has been a bombing in Jerusalem — the first in four years. These are ominous signs of greater escalation of violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the potential costs this could have for Israeli and Palestinian populations are reasons alone for the U.S. to intervene.
But an escalation of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, could drastically undermine U.S. efforts to maintain the delicate balance of facilitating democratic transitions and managing its strategic interests. The Obama administration must act now to prevent this from happening through diplomatic intervention by sending a special envoy back to the region.
The potential regional costs of this escalation are enormous and cannot be understated. At a minimum, some Arab authoritarian leaders may use this crisis to divert the revolutionary fervor and reverse some of the gains proponents of political reform have made.
But the most important consequence with the greatest potential impact on U.S. interests is how a new Gaza war might affect domestic politics in Egypt. A major escalation of fighting would cause another humanitarian crisis similar to 2009 and pressure the Egyptian military government to act. The supreme military council would be confronted with the same pressures that challenged former President Hosni Mubarak: either retain strict control of the borders with Gaza in the interests of Egyptian national security and face domestic and international Arab criticism, or relax border restrictions to provide humanitarian relief and risk “owning” Gaza as well as the associated security risks of a more porous border. These contingencies were likely far from Egyptians’ minds as they voted to approve a number of constitutional amendments. A new Gaza war or even an escalation at this time could easily derail the process of meaningful political reform — one of the goals of the revolution.
A successful democratic transition in Egypt is just as vital for the Egyptians as it is for the region; as the regional trendsetter, it could have a power positive demonstration effect. But a neglected Palestinian-Israeli conflict could threaten this development and complicate U.S. involvement in the region.
To avoid this situation, the U.S. must escalate its diplomatic efforts through the intervention of a special envoy. This robust diplomatic intervention would not only work to diffuse tensions, but also would have a positive effect throughout the region by showing the United States’ leadership is built on more than just possessing escalation dominance in warfare.
Finally, since the U.S. is the most capable broker in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this diplomatic initiative could be a respectable exit strategy from the Libyan conflict — a conflict that is quickly becoming unpopular domestically and has signs of a major quagmire.
The proven political power of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict across the Arab world is unparalleled and the Obama administration can no longer afford to ignore it. The U.S. must escalate its diplomatic efforts by sending a permanent envoy before the window of opportunity closes.
Lawrence Rubin is assistant professor at Georgia Tech in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs.
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