As U.S. political focus turns to declarations of presidential candidacies, there needs to be a deliberate effort to avoid a repeat of the “Obama adventure.”
Remember how Obama was supposed to be some kind of benign political homemaker who, unlike his predecessor, George W. Bush, was going to wrap up overseas military engagements, bring the troops home and focus on tidying up the house? The so-called “domestic” president instead ended up being dragged into the international arena, armed with little more than his pre-emptive Nobel Peace Prize, and now faces the distinct possibility of ending his tenure with the Middle East afire and the Cold War revived.
Presidential primary season usually means that both Democratic and Republican bases start evaluating their candidates against a wish list of largely social values. Given the current global climate, that’s like arguing over wallpaper while a bulldozer is revving up outside to demolish the entire house. America’s domestic security — both military and economic — is totally dependent on its president’s understanding of the endlessly shifting global puzzle, the effects of which trickle down to impact every American’s checkbook.
For example, international regulations born in Basel, Switzerland, at the behest of G20 finance ministers ultimately weave their way to every American’s doorstep. The international legislation is then adopted domestically — because the boy scouts of America (aka Congress) are always eager to show what great leaders they are by adopting any fiscally oppressive legislation on behalf of the American people.
America needs a leader who can sit at the G20 table and not be so quick to rush headlong into something morally righteous but fiscally stupid.
Turkey may be the next economic and political battlefront. America and Europe are no doubt counting on establishing an economic foothold via Iran’s participation as a gas supplier to the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, set for 2018 completion. The pipeline would supply gas to Europe via Turkey. Except that this would cut into Russia’s gas exports to Europe. So Russia is pushing back with the new Turkish Stream pipeline, running into Turkey and Greece.
If you’re keeping score at home, this means that if all goes as planned, Russia may cede leverage in Ukraine by opting for gas transit to Europe via Greece instead of the traditional Ukraine route. But Russia would gain market share and influence in Europe as a result of the pivot. Turkey gets asked to the prom by two different pipelines — one controlled by Russia and the other by the West — and feels torn, so it cries on the phone while the offers ramp up. And Iran ends up getting seduced for its gas supply by the West’s new pipeline initiative, all while fully understanding that Russia has long remained its only friend in everything from diplomacy to nuclear knowhow.
The outcome of this maneuvering will determine how much America spends or saves — which in turn will impact the economic situation at home.
How many of the U.S. presidential candidates actually understand these critical issues? It’s like the computer strategy game Empire: Total War on steroids. Meanwhile, the presidential candidates are busy playing “Hungry Hungry Hippos.”
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