Forecast for Barnes-Deal ads: more, nastier

And the Republican Governors Association released a TV ad that focused on a verbal gaffe made by Barnes in 2002 that appeared to be callous about the deaths of two children in state custody when he was governor.

The increased animus comes as no surprise to political observers of all stripes.

"I expect them to be hostile and to get even nastier," said Deal supporter Jan Sheffield, 54, of Marietta. "Politics is a pretty grimy business, and these guys are vying for power. They'll do what it takes."

One thing it will take is TV advertising. It is, media consultants agree, an efficient and cost-effective way to reach voters, and that means candidates must buy a lot of commercial time, particularly in a statewide race such as the one for governor.

Deal and Barnes are each doing their part. Combined, they may spend a few million dollars on media from now until the election, with most of that going to TV.

"As far as spending levels, the race kind of started off slowly. But [now] these guys have saturated the market," said Bill Hoffman, general manager for WSB-TV, adding that it seems to him that the two candidates have been spending fairly equally.

A review of the public records of the candidates' purchases of commercial time shows Barnes and Deal concentrating on traditional programs to relay their messages to voters. They lean on news shows throughout the day as well as talk shows, with an occasional foray into prime-time programming or special events.

It can get costly. While a 30-second spot on a daytime soap opera might run $400, or $1,400 for the late evening news, a prime-time show such as "Glee" can command several thousand dollars for a half minute.

Then there's the big event. A Deal commercial to air during the University of Georgia football game against the University of Florida on Oct. 30 -- three days before the election -- cost $28,500. Airtime for a Deal ad during a recent Falcons game cost $24,000.

Commercial buying generally increases dramatically in the last days before an election, and advertising time often is purchased during those final hectic days as campaigns jockey to make the best use of their funds -- and to respond to opposing ads.

Plus, "you don't want to buy six months [before the election], then run out of money," said Alex Patton, owner of Ozean Media, a political consultancy in Florida.

Still, many slots are booked in advance.

For example, according to records, 22 Barnes spots are contracted to run on WAGA-TV on Nov. 1, the day before the election, at a cost of just over $15,000. And 13 spots for Deal are contracted to run on WGCL-TV that day at a cost of more than $20,000.

Having the money to buy time as the election draws near may not be a problem, but that doesn't mean there aren't issues. Both Deal and Barnes are seeking the "right time," the programs where they can reach their target market, which is likely key voters. And, political consultants say, those slots are in limited supply.

Also, in the last week, particularly, the number of TV political ads can be overwhelming and ineffective.

"You reach a point where there's clutter," said Matt Towery, a former Republican lawmaker who runs the media and polling firm InsideAdvantage.

Jamel Gresham, 48, of Atlanta says at this point he tunes out when the political ads flood his TV.

"My mind is already made up," the Barnes backer said.

Campaigns can and do use other media, primarily cable TV as well as some radio, in order to reach specific markets. But Atlanta's major TV stations reach much of the state's population, making it the main outlet for candidates' messages.

Some of the messages in the Barnes and Deal commercials have been viewed by the opposing camps as overly negative or mean-spirited. Barnes supporters did not respond well to a Deal spot featuring two elderly men sitting around drinking coffee and making fun of Barnes' "plan" for Georgia.

Deal's camp calls Barnes' campaign "completely negative ... since the first day of the general election."

Figure it won't get kinder and gentler.

"You'll see more aggressive ads," Towery said. "If you're attacked all the time and you don't attack back, you're losing ground."