In a moment of economic worry about the future and a month where the economy typically shrinks, metro Atlanta shed jobs — but fewer than usual, the state Department of Labor said Thursday.
Metro Atlanta lost 6,100 jobs in July.
But historically, the average monthly loss has been nearly twice as much during a month when many hiring managers are on vacation, schools are closed and some factories take a hot weather hiatus. In the three decades of pre-pandemic data for Julys, metro Atlanta had an increase in jobs in only two, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jobs were lost in local government, retail and private educational services, officials said. Most of the hiring came in hospitality, where jobs tend to be lower paying.
Atlanta’s unemployment rate in July was 3.8%, compared to 3.1% a year ago, the Department of Labor said. Yet the current rate was actually down slightly, dipping from 3.9% in June. The rate remains low by historic standards.
“Have you heard the word, ‘vibesession’?” asked Amy Mangan, Atlanta market director for Robert Half Inc., a global staffing company. “It feels worse than it is.”
For more than a year, the economy has been fighting the headwinds of high interest rates, the result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to bring down inflation. High rates make borrowing more expensive for consumers and companies alike and discourage businesses from expanding and households from making purchases.
The Fed has long made 2% inflation its goal, but with job growth slowing and inflation down to less than 3%, the Fed’s rate-setting committee was expected to consider a cut. Yet in their July meeting, the committee took no action.
One member of the committee, Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution he was willing to accept a recession to control inflation, though he also said he does not currently see a recession happening.
As national job growth became sluggish and the Fed continued to delay any lowering of interest rates, the long, post-pandemic expansion began to look wobbly. As fears rose earlier this month, the stock market took a frightening — if brief — plunge.
And that was before this week’s announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that its annual revision of jobs data showed job creation as about 30% weaker than originally thought.
Even if the economy has avoided recession, the growth has been uneven.
“In the first quarter, we saw where small businesses were starting to constrict,” said Kevin Dunn, chief executive of Decisely, an Alpharetta-based company that helps small companies and franchise insure employees. “There’s always some pullback after the holidays, but this wasn’t just seasonal.”
Yet consumers continued to spend — partly by increasingly hitting their credit cards — while many companies have figured out ways to manage with less borrowing, said Dunn.
“In July, we saw things start to pick back up,” he said. “People were starting to grow their workforces again. In July, we saw a return to stability and increases in hiring.”
The number of postings for open jobs in metro Atlanta has fallen sharply since the intense shortage of workers in 2021, but it is still higher now than it was before the pandemic, according to online job site Indeed.
Openings outnumber job seekers. And in a huge population, even the low unemployment rate means 124,377 workers were jobless in July.
That counts only those who are in the labor force and actively looking for a job, so in hard times, people who become discouraged and stopping seeking work aren’t counted.
During the past year, the metro Atlanta labor force is up by 57,947, a growth that is one of the drivers of the higher unemployment rate, according to Indeed economist Nick Bunker. “(That’s) a sign that workers remain confident in their ability to eventually find work.”
Most analysts now expect the Fed to drop interest rates next month, and some believe it will be an aggressive cut.
But this week’s revision of job numbers is a reminder that even the government is not sure how vulnerable the economy is to continued high rates, said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a New York-based firm doing forecasting and analysis. “The Fed is attempting to calibrate monetary policy in a data fog.”
That means Atlanta’s employment numbers for the past year should also be viewed with some skepticism, Sweet said.
Yet finding out that some jobs never existed is not as bad as having real people laid off, he said. “Employment in Atlanta metro area will be revised lower, but the labor market remains strong.”
New jobless claims, generally taken as an indication of layoffs, were up modestly in July, but were lower than a year ago, the Department of Labor said.
Metro Atlanta jobs report
Job postings for metro Atlanta, compared to pre-pandemic
Peak: up 84.3% (December 2021)
Recent: 19.9% (August 2024)
Metro Atlanta unemployment rate*, July
Lowest, pre-pandemic: 3.3% (1999)
Highest, pre-pandemic: 11.0% (2009)
Average, pre-pandemic: 5.8%
Year ago: 3.1% (2023)
Recent: 3.8% (2024)
Metro Atlanta job change*, July
Worst, pre-pandemic: down 33,100 (2002)
Best, pre-pandemic: up 2,600 (2004)
Average, pre-pandemic: down 11,900
Recent: down 6,100 (2024)
*Not adjusted for seasonal patterns
Sources: Georgia Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Indeed
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