Academy Awards season is unfolding with alarming speed this year. The nominees were announced Jan. 22, and here comes the Oscarcast at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC. One month, start to finish.
So we get less time to second-guess ourselves, and buzz has barely reached takeoff speed. Nevertheless, I offer my Oscar predictions in the annual Outguess Ebert contest. Do better than I do, and you win a prize. Enter online and see the complete list of predictions at www.rogerebert.com.
Best Motion Picture: Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire," for a lot of reasons, one of them being that it is a superb entertainment. If ever there was a rags-to-riches story, this is it. If ever there was a Dickens story for the 21st century, this is it. And if ever there was a blockbuster that seemed to break every rule of Hollywood marketing, this is certainly it.
Another predictor: Danny Boyle won the Directors Guild award on Jan. 31, and in 52 of the last 58 years, the DGA winner's film won the Oscar as best picture. So don't bet against it.
Best Actor: Sean Penn. What an astonishing actor he has come to be, embodying a character without any obvious artifice. How did he choose here to play a proudly gay man? With complete naturalism. You never feel Penn is reaching. He plays Harvey Milk with ease, never self-conscious, not the hero of a biopic but just this nice man who was made political by society's injustice.
The runner-up is Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler." His performance, composed of brutal fight scenes and touching personal ones, was deeply moving.
Best Actress: It's between Meryl Streep in "Doubt" and Kate Winslet in "The Reader" — and too bad, because my heart votes for Melissa Leo in "Frozen River." The question is, did enough voters see "Frozen River"? If voters were required to see all the nominees, predicting the winners would be a lot easier. But they aren't.
Between Streep and Winslet, not much to choose. Both performances are superb. It has absolutely nothing to do with it, but here's how the voters will think: Streep has been nominated 15 times (!) and won twice. Enough, already? Winslet has been nominated six times and has never won. And she gave a second great 2008 performance in "Revolutionary Road." So, Kate Winslet.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, period. Bet the house. No dark horses.
Best Supporting Actress: I'm going out on a limb: Viola Davis, for "Doubt." She was responsible for the most devastating scene of the year, and opposite Meryl Streep, no less.
The other contenders are Marisa Tomei, for "The Wrestler," and Penelope Cruz, for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Best Director: Danny Boyle, for "Slumdog Millionaire," not only because it was an awesome directorial challenge, using untrained actors on unfamiliar locations, but because he won the Director's Guild, a usually reliable omen.
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