After more than a year of promises of a recovery, Georgia could well be on its way if the latest unemployment numbers and anecdotal evidence prove true, state economists say.
The state Department of Labor on Thursday said Georgia's unemployment rate dropped in November, falling to 9.9 percent last month from 10.2 in October. It is the second consecutive month the number has dipped and, at three-tenths of a percentage point, is the highest one-month decline in 34 years, the department said.
Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo, said he is seeing a lot more business activity as he travels the state, from the expansion of Augusta's convention center to new job and manufacturing prospects in Savannah and Dalton. The unemployment numbers may be lagging what is really happening on the ground, he said.
"Layoffs have clearly slowed and hiring seems to be picking up," he said. "What's missing is the amount of expansion that we used to have in a recovery or the number of new businesses created."
Georgia could use some consistency if it's truly recovering. The unemployment rate has bounced up and down since late 2009. And it has exceeded the national unemployment rate -- currently at 8.6 percent -- for 52 consecutive months.
A report earlier this week by ManpowerGroup offered another reason for hope. The survey found that the majority of metro Atlanta employers responding said they either expect to add jobs (18 percent) in the first three months of next year or to maintain the staffing they have (71 percent). Six percent said they plan to cut jobs.
But Roger Tutterow, an economist at Mercer University, offered caution. While he agreed that the latest numbers seem to be moving in the right direction, he wants to see if they hold up after the holidays. Retail hiring traditionally pumps up employment numbers during this time of the year.
He also said some of Georgia's largest employment sectors -- including financial services and construction -- remain vulnerable. And their weakness has been largely responsible for reductions in government, which relies on property tax collections to pay employees.
"Those three are linked and they will play a big role going forward," he said.
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