Winning a division title doesn’t ensure an NFL team will make a deep playoff run, but losing it generally means it won’t. Since the wild-card system began in 1970, only 10 wild-card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl. Only six have won it.
The Falcons need look only at their own recent history:
• 2016 playoffs: They won the NFC South, hosted two playoff games and went to the Super Bowl.
• 2017 playoffs: The finished third, made the playoffs as a sixth seed, traveled to Los Angeles and won the wild-card game, but then traveled to Philadelphia and lost a close game a week later.
At least one entity expects a change. BetDSI, an online oddsmaker, has installed the Falcons as a slight favorite in the NFC South at plus-170 (equivalent of 1.7-1). They’re followed by New Orleans (plus-185), Carolina (plus-275) and Tampa Bay (plus-500).
My view: It looks good for the Falcons. A breakdown after offseason changes:
1. Falcons (last year: 10-6, 1-1 in playoffs)
Nothing about their offseason makes you say, "Wow!" But the defense improved significantly last season and the offense should be better, particularly in the red zone. Defensive tackle should have been the team's top offseason priority after losing two linemen in free agency, Dontari Poe and Adrian Clayborn. But wide receiver Calvin Ridley, a first-round pick, will have an immediate impact on the offense as a guy who can beat single coverage, taking pressure off Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. That and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's second-year familiarity should be enough to fix some problems.
Rookie defensive tackle Deadrin Senat (third round) isn’t likely to stand out, but he’s strong and should occupy enough space and attention to free Grady Jarrett inside and Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley outside. With Jack Crawford, Brooks Reed and Derrick Shelby expected to be in the rotation, and Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Duke Riley at linebacker, the Falcons should have one of the NFL’s top fronts.
The signing of guard Brandon Fusco didn’t move the meter in town, but he’s a veteran with 80 starts on his resume, so that should help, assuming guard Andy Levitre can stay healthy.
Prediction: 11-5.
2. New Orleans Saints (11-5, 1-1 in playoffs)
The Falcons had two playoff highlights: The win over the Rams and New Orleans’ last-play loss at Minnesota in the divisional playoffs.
The Saints clearly sense their window is closing with 39-year-old quarterback Drew Brees. They sacrificed part of their future at the draft, thinking about 2018. Needing an edge rusher, New Orleans drafted Texas-San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport with the 14th overall pick. Even if you believe Davenport was worth being taken that high, and that’s up for debate, the Saints gave up a haul to get to No. 14: their own pick at 27, their first-rounder in 2019 and a fifth-rounder.
I thought it was a good trade when it was made – because I assumed they were moving up to get quarterback Lamar Jackson as Brees’ eventual replacement. But they did it for a pass rusher from a small program in Conference USA who’s considered talented but raw and therefore a project. Assuming an immediate impact was at best risky and at worse dumb.
Prediction: 9-7.
3. Carolina Panthers (2017: 11-5, 0-1 in playoffs)
I like some of the changes: adding Poe from the Falcons both weakened a division opponent and strengthened the defensive line, even if the Panthers overpaid for him (three years, $28 million, $13 million guaranteed). Norv Turner probably is an upgrade at offensive coordinator over Mike Shula and should help Cam Newton.
But there are too many negatives. There’s a cloud hanging over the entire organization. The team is for sale as a result of an investigation into alleged workplace misconduct by owner Jerry Richardson. The offensive line lost its best player, guard Andrew Norwell, in free agency. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks left for a head coaching job in Arizona, making it the second straight year the Panthers lost their D.C. (Sean McDermott left for Buffalo in 2017). Secondary coach Curtis Fuller abruptly resigned this week. Coach Ron Rivera called it a “complicated” situation. Aren’t they all?
Here’s the punctuation on Carolina’s offseason: Thomas Davis, linebacker and franchise icon, was suspended for the first four games after testing positive for a banned substance (an estrogen blocker). So there’s a ding to the defense and the man’s legacy.
Prediction: 9-7.
4. Tampa Bay (5-11, missed playoffs)
I suspect we’re near the end of the Ex-Falcons Regime (coach Dirk Koetter, defensive coordinator Mike Smith). The Buccaneers probably aren’t as bad as their record last season would suggest, but they don’t look much better.
Smith should be happy: The defensive line should be one of the league’s best. Joining Gerald McCoy are first-round pick Vita Vea inside, and Jason Pierre Paul (via trade) and Vinny Curry (free agency) outside. The Bucs also had three second-round draft picks and used two on cornerbacks, M.J. Stewart of North Carolina and Carlton Davis of Auburn.
But quarterback Jameis Winston may have regressed last season after missing time early with a shoulder injury, and he still makes too many mistakes. He led the NFL with 15 fumble (eight lost) and 11 interceptions. The running backs are ex-Falcons Jacquizz Rodgers (feh) and rookie Ronald Jones. The team opted to give tight end Cameron Brate a $41 million contract despite having O.J. Howard on the roster. Could that money have been better spent elsewhere?
Prediction: 6-10.
Earlier: Make that 19-11 for Braves; franchise history tilts to playoffs
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