Maxwell Class A Playoff projections

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons, approximately 51 each second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.

Modal Brackets

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. In the Class A Private bracket, there are 1.03 x 10^26 possible brackets and in the Class A Public bracket, there are 3.71 x 10^27 possible brackets. For comparison, scientists estimate there are 7.5 x 10^18 grains of sand on earth.

Class A Public Bracket

ajc.com

Credit: Todd Holcomb

Credit: Todd Holcomb

Class A Private Bracket

ajc.com

Credit: Todd Holcomb

Credit: Todd Holcomb

Playoff Projections by Region

Each region is shown with the number of teams that have a greater than average chance of winning the state championship, the number of times it is represented in the finals out of a possible 2,000,000 times, and the number of times it is represented by the state champion along with the associated odds.

Region > Avg Finals Champion Odds
5 - A 2 849,923 645,031 0.55
4 - A 3 731,556 409,632 1.44
2 - A 4 700,376 339,992 1.94
7 - A 4 700,904 288,760 2.46
3 - A 3 510,266 186,097 4.37
8 - A 1 355,208 99,732 9.03
6 - A 0 123,523 24,468 39.87
1 - A 0 28,244 6,288 158.49

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with the number of times it made the playoffs, its average depth into the playoffs, the number of times of making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Class A Public Schools

Team Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Finals Champion Odds
Marion County 46.38 999,091 2.99 388,239 253,053 2.95
Dooly County 42.68 976,095 2.42 233,513 124,172 7.05
Charlton County 43.37 912,856 2.26 224,377 123,020 7.13
Lincoln County 44.58 653,151 1.68 176,276 103,337 8.68
Clinch County 40.92 977,860 2.21 181,210 85,915 10.64
Irwin County 40.84 899,425 1.98 153,604 72,886 12.72
Emanuel County Institute 39.68 962,544 2.14 161,184 71,396 13.01
Wilcox County 39.28 908,103 1.88 125,282 54,350 17.40
Johnson County 36.61 906,018 1.71 84,554 31,140 31.11
Hawkinsville 35.89 864,684 1.54 65,204 22,925 42.62
Wilkinson County 35.56 811,917 1.43 57,654 20,155 48.62
Commerce 32.51 971,970 1.54 39,768 11,022 89.73
Trion 31.08 838,649 1.30 28,469 7,257 136.80
Taylor County 31.66 777,762 1.18 25,224 6,714 147.94
Mitchell County 30.19 757,872 1.18 23,478 5,575 178.37
Turner County 30.48 637,055 0.92 15,557 3,787 263.06
Claxton 29.78 457,035 0.66 10,484 2,466 404.52
Miller County 24.24 546,445 0.72 4,536 690 1,448.28
Hancock Central 19.57 229,230 0.26 459 58 17,240.38
Telfair County 19.46 175,253 0.20 334 33 30,302.03
Terrell County 15.60 165,658 0.19 175 18 55,554.56
Treutlen 17.59 131,439 0.15 212 17 58,822.53
Greenville 17.38 85,797 0.10 86 6 166,665.67
Randolph-Clay 12.46 154,503 0.17 55 5 199,999.00
Portal 16.23 40,840 0.05 31 2 499,999.00
Lanier County 13.02 22,379 0.02 10 1 999,999.00
Mount Zion (Carroll) 14.36 17,400 0.02 9 - -
Schley County 11.80 37,624 0.04 9 - -
Georgia Military College 10.63 2,352 0.00 - - -
Wheeler County 8.81 25,923 0.03 4 - -
Jenkins County 7.18 10,074 0.01 1 - -
Calhoun County 5.99 18,106 0.02 - - -
Atkinson County 5.22 10,711 0.01 2 - -
Montgomery County 2.46 2,400 0.00 - - -
Twiggs County -0.29 14 0.00 - - -
Towns County -2.38 11,665 0.01 - - -
Warren County -9.85 18 0.00 - - -
Central (Talbotton) -11.91 82 0.00 - - -
Glascock County -6.75 - 0.00 - - -
Stewart County -21.46 - 0.00 - - -

Class A Private Schools

Team Rating Playoffs Avg Depth Finals Champion Odds
Eagle's Landing Christian 62.81 991,331 4.09 725,068 613,453 0.63
Aquinas 51.00 986,916 2.80 323,228 135,345 6.39
Calvary Day 47.57 984,387 2.49 225,495 75,992 12.16
Prince Avenue Christian 47.27 995,364 2.52 235,733 75,454 12.25
Landmark Christian 43.58 952,503 1.90 100,736 27,540 35.31
Stratford Academy 41.54 886,264 1.69 75,171 17,125 57.39
Tattnall Square 39.52 892,378 1.59 54,239 10,857 91.11
George Walton Academy 38.50 966,376 1.67 49,989 9,029 109.75
Mount Paran Christian 38.52 836,246 1.48 45,303 8,528 116.26
Mount Pisgah Christian 38.13 879,279 1.57 46,522 8,468 117.09
Savannah Christian 37.65 735,812 1.17 28,293 5,084 195.70
Our Lady of Mercy 36.54 843,316 1.28 24,119 4,038 246.65
Athens Academy 35.93 867,906 1.32 23,951 3,674 271.18
Brookstone 35.23 807,512 1.20 19,257 2,762 361.06
First Presbyterian 34.81 624,040 0.90 13,096 1,826 546.65
Athens Christian 29.06 925,542 1.20 5,767 553 1,807.32
Whitefield Academy 25.70 509,246 0.62 1,573 108 9,258.26
Mount de Sales 26.94 233,265 0.28 781 57 17,542.86
Christian Heritage 26.07 171,861 0.21 554 41 24,389.24
Walker 24.31 285,349 0.34 626 36 27,776.78
King's Ridge Christian 23.68 145,361 0.17 289 21 47,618.05
Pinecrest Academy 20.87 197,890 0.22 169 9 111,110.11
Pacelli 19.27 52,738 0.06 24 - -
Savannah Country Day 18.56 8,342 0.01 8 - -
Fellowship Christian 13.90 56,980 0.06 9 - -
St. Francis 4.98 9,639 0.01 - - -
Strong Rock Christian 3.53 1,061 0.00 - - -
Lakeview Academy 3.44 19,843 0.02 - - -
Mount Vernon Presbyterian -3.55 132,618 0.13 - - -
Hebron Christian Academy -6.48 587 0.00 - - -
Baconton -14.11 48 0.00 - - -
Providence Christian -30.56 - 0.00 - - -
North Cobb Christian -25.73 - 0.00 - - -