Temperatures in Atlanta are expected to flirt with 90 degrees this weekend, about two weeks earlier than normal for this kind of heat to arrive, according to the National Weather Service.

And if a new federal forecast proves accurate, there’s likely be more where that came from across the Peach State over the next three months.

New projections released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show summer is likely to be hotter and wetter than normal in much of the South between June and August.

A new forecast issued Thursday by the NOAA favors above average temperatures for Georgia and much of the U.S. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Credit: NOAA

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Credit: NOAA

Globally, the first four months of 2025 have already been among the hottest on record. The planet experienced its second hottest April and second hottest first four months of the year since recordkeeping began in 1850.

Georgia has also been hotter than normal so far this year, especially last month — April was the Peach State’s fourth hottest on record, with temperatures 4 degrees above the 30-year average.

Climate change largely explains why the planet has been running hot — and why it is expected to stay that way.

Last year was Earth’s hottest ever recorded, breaking the previous record set just the year prior. The exceptional heat reflects the long-term trend of rising average global temperatures, mostly because of the burning fossil fuels and other human activities, scientists say.

And as global temperatures climb, it increases the likelihood of extreme heat in Georgia, too.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to get (extreme heat), but it means the odds are in our favor that temperatures will be above normal,” said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia.

Jimmy Kupolati (left) and his brother, Victor, stay cool in the water fountain at the Duluth Town Green. As global temperatures climb, it increases the likelihood of extreme heat in Georgia, too. (Jason Getz/AJC 2024)

Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com

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Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com

What happens in the Pacific Ocean will also influence Georgia’s summer, Knox said.

Since last month, the cooler waters typical of a La Niña pattern that had been present in the tropical Pacific have given way to ocean temperatures that are closer to average.

The NOAA expects the so-called “neutral” conditions to stick around at least through August. Knox said that is a significant driver of the forecast for a wetter summer in Georgia because of its influence on hurricane formation.

Neutral conditions tend to tamp down on wind shear that blows across the main areas of hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, offering tropical storms better opportunity to organize and strengthen.

“If it’s weaker, it allows vertical circulation to develop much more, meaning every potential low pressure center has a better chance of developing that vertical structure to become a tropical storm or hurricane,” Knox said.

Add to the mix warm ocean temperatures present in the tropical Atlantic and already some forecasters are predicting they could produce another active hurricane season.

Last month, an influential group of researchers from Colorado State University projected the Atlantic would produce an above-average 17 named storms during the upcoming hurricane season, which starts June 1. Of those, nine are expected to grow into hurricanes and four are predicted to reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater).

Last hurricane season, Georgia was lashed by multiple storms, including Hurricane Helene, very likely the most destructive storm in state history.

Helene caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damage to Georgia’s agriculture and forestry industries, the biggest sector of the Peach State’s economy, according to the University of Georgia. Helene, which also devastated Florida, the Carolinas and parts of Tennessee, was the seventh-costliest tropical storm to strike the U.S. since 1980 and has been blamed for at least 219 deaths.

More information on what to expect from the tropics is coming Thursday, when NOAA issues its hurricane season forecast.


A note of disclosure

This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at AJC.com/donate/climate.

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Georgia Tech student Kelsey Chambers found a comfortable spot in between classes as temperatures soared toward 90 degrees last year. Atlanta is expected to reach 90 degrees today for the first time this year. (AJC File)

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