With the advent of the four-team College Football Playoff, the 2014 season would have been a journey into the unknown even without an exodus at the most important position. But with a host of excellent quarterbacks bound for the NFL — Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Blake Bortles, Aaron Murray, Tajh Boyd and Zach Mettenberger (and let’s not forget Connor Shaw, who mightn’t play a professional down) — the sport is awash in uncertainty.
Which is why, in this Top 25 compilation, we begin with what is known.
1. Florida State: The Seminoles return Jameis Winston, their Heisman-holding quarterback, and are making an assault on Alabama for the distinction of being the nation's most talented team. The schedule, however, will be much harder. FSU opens against Oklahoma State in Dallas and will play Notre Dame in Tallahassee.
2. Oregon: If Famous Jameis doesn't claim another Heisman, Marcus Mariota might be the reason. He's the best quarterback Oregon has found to engineer its sleek offense, and he's among the few with NFL options who chose to stay in college. Even so, the Ducks must stop losing games whenever their offense encounters the hint of resistance.
3. Ohio State: The knock on the Buckeyes — that they hadn't beaten anybody — was borne out when they lost to Michigan State for the Big Ten title and to Clemson in the Orange Bowl. But those were the first losses suffered by Urban Meyer in his latest gig and he's only getting started. And his quarterback — Braxton Miller — returns.
4. Alabama: Can just any quarterback win at Bama? The progression from John Parker Wilson to Greg McElroy to McCarron was seamless, but McCarron was clearly the best of the three. It's hard to imagine he'll be easily replaced, especially with Lane Kiffin improbably installed as offensive coordinator.
5. UCLA: The Bruins' offseason was made when quarterback Brett Hundley announced he was staying in Westwood, which means that Jim Mora — who has, surprising the heck out of me, gone 19-8 at UCLA — could be poised to lift this program even higher. Don't look now, but the Pac-12 might be tougher than the SEC next season.
6. Michigan State: Quarterback Connor Cook grew into the job to the extent that he was, at season's end, presiding over upsets of Ohio State and Stanford. The ferocious Spartan defense must replace more than half its starters, but the key is that esteemed coordinator Pat Narduzzi hasn't yet been lured away to take a head coaching job.
7. Stanford: Quarterback Kevin Hogan didn't have the banner season that the final games of 2012 suggested, but the Cardinal don't necessarily rise and fall with the forward pass. This is a power team — meaning running and defense — in the finesse-y Pac-12. That prosaic approach has lifted Stanford to consecutive Rose Bowls.
8. Auburn: Granted, this sounds low for a team that came within 13 seconds of a BCS title in Year 1 with Gus Malzahn as head coach and that returns Nick Marshall, its made-for-Malzahn quarterback. But the Tigers were 6-1 in one-score games. Without the splendid Tre Mason, it's not clear if the charmed 2013 season can be repeated.
9. Notre Dame: The Irish fell from 12-1 and the BCS title game to 9-4 and the Pinstripe Bowl, but the surge of 2012 shouldn't be written off as a fluke. Quarterback Everett Golson returns after a year lost to academics. The defense loses tackle Stephon Tuitt of Monroe, Ga., but imports coordinator Brian VanGorder, who worked in Athens, Ga.
10. Oklahoma: Is it OK to call him Big Game Bob again? After a season that saw his Sooners lose by 16 points to Texas and by 29 to Baylor, Bob Stoops' team finished fast by whipping Oklahoma State and, more notably, Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The latter victory, overseen by freshman quarterback Trevor Knight, should serve as a springboard.
11. Baylor: Art Briles didn't follow Robert Griffin III, whom he'd coached to the 2011 Heisman Trophy, to the Washington Redskins, and that augurs well for a continuing Bears' uptick. So does the return of quarterback Bryce Petty. At issue is the defense: In losses to Oklahoma State and Central Florida, Baylor yielded 101 points.
12. Georgia: The SEC East is in flux, what with Florida in decline, Vanderbilt's James Franklin gone to Penn State and the top three 2013 finishers replacing quarterbacks. Hutson Mason won't be better than Murray, but Mason should steer a team with Todd Gurley to a division title. That's assuming defensive coordinator Todd Grantham isn't irreplaceable.
13. Washington: The Huskies were 8-4 under Steve Sarkisian, who left to coach Southern Cal. As Sarkisian's replacement, they hired Chris Petersen, who went 92-12 at Boise State and gained the reputation of being, pound for pound, the best coach west of Tuscaloosa, Ala. Here's where Coach Pete, as he's known, gets to prove the point.
14. Wisconsin: Bret Bielema's case for being indispensable went ka-blooey. He left to coach Arkansas after going 8-4; Gary Andersen, Bielema's successor, went 9-4. If this turns out to be a year a quarterback doesn't win the Heisman, you might look toward Badgers tailback Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 1,609 yards as a sophomore.
15. South Carolina: Even as we look ahead, we should offer a backward nod to the Gamecocks, who went 11-2 each of the past three seasons but didn't play for the SEC title in any of them, despite beating the East winner all three years. Even without Shaw and the ballyhooed Jadeveon Clowney, Carolina should be capable of running second in the East.
16. LSU: I'm not sure what to make of the Tigers. Are they still a contender for national titles? Probably not. Are they apt to slide into irrelevance? Probably not. LSU isn't losing as many NFL early entries as it did last season, but it does have to replace Mettenberger. The Tigers remain too talented to ignore but too flawed to win more than 10 games.
17. Duke: It's tempting to dismiss Duke's 10 wins as a function of coaching, willpower and luck. But the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Texas A&M showed that the Devils have real players. Anthony Boone, who passed for more yards than Manziel on New Year's Eve, returns, as does receiver Jamison Crowder. Offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, however, left for Florida.
18. Missouri: The shocking SEC East champ loses quarterback James Franklin, tailback Henry Josey and much of its defense. Still, Maty Mauk did nicely while subbing for the injured Franklin and Dorial Green-Beckham should be the nation's best receiver. That's providing Green-Beckham's second drug-related arrest doesn't yield a significant suspension.
19. Clemson: Here's where we learn if the Tigers' success — they've won 32 of 40 games over three seasons — will outlast the completed careers of Boyd and Sammy Watkins. The Atlantic Division includes Florida State, which has lost two games in two years, and Louisville, which has lost three. Can Dabo Swinney hang with Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino?
20. Southern Cal: If the Sarkisian hire didn't seem all that inspired, how clever do you have to be to win big at Troy? Once the overmatched Kiffin was fired, USC went 6-2 under interim coach Ed Orgeron and won the Las Vegas Bowl under Clay Helton, who took over when Orgeron was bypassed for Sarkisian. A little more stability should go a long way.
21. Louisville: With Bridgewater exiting, coach Charlie Strong leaving for Texas and the Cardinals set to enter the ACC, their uprising — they were 23-3 the past two seasons — seemed at an end. But athletic director Tom Jurich rehired Petrino, who's morally challenged but tactically excellent. He and Grantham will constitute a rather dubious duo.
22. Arizona State: The Sun Devils won the Pac-12 South — that's the one without Oregon and Stanford — and beat Southern Cal and UCLA en route. Then they were routed by Stanford in the conference title game and Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Still, this remains a good team in a good league with a good quarterback in Taylor Kelly.
23. Ole Miss: Given the nature of the SEC West, there's a ceiling on how high the Rebels can climb. They're not going to finish ahead of Alabama, and probably not Auburn or LSU. But they can be a very good team, and they'll get the chance to strut early: Ole Miss will face Petersen-less Boise State in the first half of the two-night Chick-fil-A Kickoff.
24. Texas: The resolution of Mack Brown's status should have a rally-the-troops effect on the Longhorns. In Austin, Strong will have access to resources that don't exist in Louisville, Ky. (An in-state recruiting base, to name one.) Booster Red McCombs might not have liked the hire, but Strong should do well. It takes a bad coach to mess up Texas.
25. Central Florida: The Knights of George O'Leary went 12-1, beat Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl and came within a three-point loss to South Carolina of going undefeated. Bortles, the breakout quarterback, left for the NFL, but it won't take much to run the table in the American Athletic Conference (nee Big East), now without Louisville and Rutgers.
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