Don’t look at the NCAA statistical rankings to figure out why two-loss Georgia Tech opened as just a three-point underdog against undefeated Florida State. Also forget all of the subjective (and hopeful) analysis about FSU’s luck finally running out after so many slim escapes this season.
Instead, look at the advanced stats at Football Outsiders to understand why the Seminoles will have a tough time stopping Paul Johnson’s offense.
Yards per game don't tell you much because yards can be empty—the goal is to score (or prevent the opponent from scoring)—and all opponents are not equal. Yards-per-play is a better measure of efficiency but all yards are not created equal, either--a three-yard run on third-and-goal is clearly more valuable than a three-yard run on 1st-and-10 from a team's own 20-yard line.
Football Outsiders uses efficiency metrics that consider all of these factors. Its FEI ratings look at all possessions for every team and “determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured” after filtering out first-half clock-kills and scores and drives in garbage time. The S&P+ ratings consider every play from every game and measure success rate (50 percent of needed yards on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth), explosiveness and drive efficiency with an adjustment for opponent strength.
Tech's offense looks great when looking at all of these factors. The Jackets are No. 1 in Offensive FEI, and by a pretty wide margin over No. 2 Auburn. Tech is No. 7 in offensive S&P+, including No. 4 in rushing S&P+. The Jackets rank No. 1 in success rate and No. 51 in explosiveness, which confirms what any close observer of Tech's offense knows: The Jackets may not hit for many big plays, but they'll keep getting lots of plays because it's very hard to get them "behind schedule" and off the field.
Now contrast those numbers with Florida State's defense. The Seminoles rank No. 20 in defensive FEI but they rank just 37th in the percentage of methodical drives (10 or more plays) they allow. FSU ranks No. 25 in defensive S&P+ but just 62nd against the run.
The Jackets’ offense, of course, is methodical and heavy on the run. They stay in good down-and-distance situations, gain first downs, and run so many plays that eventually they hit for a big one. This is exactly the kind of profile that gives FSU’s defense problems--and that’s without even considering the unique nature of Tech’s offense.
The Jackets will have problems on defense because the Seminoles are efficient both running and throwing and quarterback Jameis Winston will be the best player on the field. But FSU’s offense is prone to three-and-outs, isn’t good at grinding out methodical drives and isn’t nearly as explosive as it was in 2013.
If Tech’s defense can force the Seminoles to be patient, the Jackets will get the ball back. And if that happens often enough, Winston will be on the sideline while Tech’s offense sucks the life out of the Seminoles in the same they did Georgia: efficiently and meticulously.
