Here's hoping the Braves keep chugging along at around .500 and the Nationals and Mets stay within striking distance because that would set up the storyline I've badly been hoping to see.
If all of that stays the same through mid-July, would the Braves become buyers at the trade deadline? Or do they sell off one of their few expendable-but-valuable pieces and keep stockpiling prospects? Is it possible they can do some combination of the two, getting some useful major leaguers back in trades to fill their needs while also adding more prospects?
By now it's clear their major need is arms in the bullpen. Nick Masset and then Brandon Cunniff became the latest in a long line of Braves relief pitchers to give it up when the Diamondbacks came back to win after trailing 6-4 after five innings last night.
“They’ve got to find somebody to get people out,” Fox Sports analyst Joe Simpson said, sounding exasperated. “I don’t know who it is, but . . .”
Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli have been adequate in the back end and Luis Avilan has been fine as the lefty specialist. The Braves have run through a long list of arms in an effort to find others who are as reliable: Cunniff, Masset, Cody Martin, Sugar Ray Marimon, Ian Thomas, Donnie Veal . . .
Some of those guys have been effective for short stretches but none have been dependable. The Braves have the worst bullpen ERA (4.71) in the majors. Paradoxically, Braves relievers have been better in higher-leverage situations: just 17 percent of inherited runners have scored, which is the second-best mark in the majors.
And yet even with the bad bullpen the Braves are 26-26. Their plan to replace the sluggers they traded away with guys who make contact has worked as well as they could have hoped. The starting pitching has stabilized and there are no major holes in the defense.
If the Braves can play .500 ball with a bad bullpen, should they just stay the course and pick up whatever prospects they can get in trades? In my interaction with fans, I haven’t sensed any real urgency for major moves. Refreshingly, most Braves backers seem to understand the rebuilding/retooling process and are content to watch an average team give good effort and wait for some of those prospects to get seasoning in the minors.
But if the Braves are still in contention come July 31, they’ll have some tough choices to make. I think that's how it will play out and I can’t wait to see what they do.
