Tiger Woods called the last four holes of this week’s PGA Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club’s Highlands Course the most difficult that he can remember.
Rory McIlroy said there are birdies that can be made at the turn, and then the golfers “will hold on for dear life.”
That danger is why CBS golf analyst Peter Kostis said the combination of the change in grasses, the adjustments — subtle and obvious — to the course and the go-big philosophies of the golfers may mean a shorter hitter such as 2001 champ David Toms may lose out to a long-ball, high-ball hitter when the Wanamaker Trophy is given Sunday.
“I can see somebody losing this tournament down the stretch, rather than somebody winning the tournament down the stretch. You can hit the ball not too poorly and string together three bogeys like that,” said Kostis, snapping his fingers.
Kostis said the winner most likely will be the golfer that either is in the lead after the 12th hole on Sunday, or is close to the lead and can survive.
While the last four holes are tough, Kostis said the danger actually starts much earlier:
No. 13: Par 4, 372 yards
This hole, which gently bends to the right, favors golfers such as Luke Donald or Toms, Kostis said.
“Precision players will have an advantage,” he said.
However, if the tees are moved up Sunday, shortening the hole to between 260 and 277 yards, the power hitters, such as Dustin Johnson or Gary Woodland, could gamble and go for it. The problem, as Kostis sees it, is the risk may not be worth the reward.
If the ball lands short in the rough near the green, the golfers may not able to get enough spin to control their chips. If drives leak right from any tee box, the grove of trees that guard the right side of the fairway comes into play. That’s a tournament-ender. Even if they hit the green with a drive, there’s a chance it can hit and skip through into the grandstands behind the green.
Kostis said most players may elect to lay up to a ridge around 250 yards that runs across the fairway, leaving them with a 135- to 140-yard wedge. Because of the heat, balls are flying this week. McIlroy said 7-irons are going 200 yards.
Missing the fairway will bring bunkers on the left and right into play. If the players avoid the bunkers, the length of the rough, which isn’t as thick as a U.S. Open, “gives you a really good shot at making the wrong decision,” Kostis said.
No. 14: Par 4, 468 yards
If No. 13 favors precision, 14 favors the bombers, and that’s by necessity on this slight dogleg to the right.
“It’s just brutal,” Kostis said.
If the tees stay back, the bunkers on the right and left are too far away for most of the field. If the tees are up, and officials may move them depending upon the prevailing wind, the bunkers will be in play. The rough near the bunkers on the left has been shaved, allowing drives that hit and run on the fast fairways to roll right into the danger they were trying to avoid. Assuming the drives land in the fairway, the golfers are left staring up at “the most severe green on the golf course,” Kostis said.
A 320-yard drive will leave a 150-yard shot into the front of the green. That seems manageable. However, to have a chance at birdie, the golfers must keep the ball below the hole on a green that slopes from back to front and side to side.
No. 15: Par 3, 260 yards
“This is just overkill,” Kostis said.
Many of the players seem to agree, saying this hole is almost too long, even if Toms famously aced it during the third round of the 2001 PGA Championship, and Webb Simpson did the same during a practice round this week. McIlroy said it seems worse than it is when looking down from the tee box.
A pond guards the right side of the green. Long hitters may be able to reach the center of the green with mid-irons. The shorter players — Donald and Toms — used rescue clubs and 3-woods during practice rounds. Anthony Kim, who isn’t a short-hitter, asked if it was a par 4 during a practice round Wednesday before pulling a hybrid and hitting the green.
“If you put it in the front left, you’ll be fine,” Kostis said. “I don’t see many birdies.”
No. 16: Par 4, 476 yards
“Brutal,” Kostis says as he stares down the fairway.
A tee box was added, making the hole 35 yards longer than in 2001 and giving organizers some flexibility in setup. Of course, the prevailing wind blows into the players.
The longer the drive, the narrower the fairway. Bunkers line the right, but it would take a drive between 315 and 360 yards to reach them. Trying to hit over them and failing can result in a variety of bad spots. Toms smashed a drive during the practice round. It landed on a slight upslope and barely advanced in the fairway, leaving him a 205- to 220-yard shot to another uphill green. He took out a rescue club before switching to a wood.
Players who miss the fairway and try to pop it out of the rough risk plugging their ball into one of the bunkers that are on either side of the green. Players practicing chips and downhill putts were powerless to keep their balls from rolling away. A ridge runs down the middle of the green. Players who hit the green but aren’t on the same level as the pin can practically forget about birdie and must concentrate on leaving with a 4.
Kostis laughs when asked if par is a good score on this hole.
“This will be a different sort of winner than in the past,” Kostis says.
No. 17: Par 3, 207 yards
McIlroy called this the most gentle of the closing holes, which is like saying a tiger is the most gentle of the big cats.
“This is a lot like 12 at Augusta,” Kostis said. “The winds are difficult to gauge.”
A lake guards the front of the shallow green. There’s nowhere to miss left. Missing right is possible, but the speed of the greens, which will run away from the golfers, actually brings the water into play if chips or pitches aren’t hit crisply.
Kostis says the key is to pick a club, pick a ball flight and pick a time to hit.
If the pin is on the left — and it likely will be during the weekend — the tee box likely will be moved up, shortening the hole to 170 yards.
Oh, and there are bunkers guarding the back. As good as these players are, that’s the last place other than the water, they will want to be.
“On a Sunday afternoon, with the PGA Championship on the line, you don’t want to be in that back bunker looking at the water,” Kostis said.
No. 18: Par 4, 507 yards
This converted par 5 can play as long as 528 yards. Hitting a driver can bring the lake that lines the left and bunkers that line the right into play. Hitting a 3-wood off the tee makes the second shot over the same lake even longer.
Kostis is not a fan of this hole. He said the green, which is 20 yards deep, may not handle the long irons or woods that many of the golfers will use if they try to reach this green in two. The long drivers, such as McIlroy, were hitting drivers and mid-irons during practice rounds.
One caddie predicted as many as 40 percent of the field will lay up short of the lake that guards the front of the green if they aren’t the in fairway off the tee, just as Toms did Sunday when he made par to secure the 2001 PGA.
“What you don’t want to do here is make a big number earlier in the week, and then if you are in position on Sunday you have to figure out what you want to do,” Kostis said. “It’s going to be a brutal hole. You make it four 4s, and you will make up a shot and a half on the field.”
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