After upsetting No. 15 Florida State for its first ACC championship since 1993, Georgia Tech not only guaranteed its passage into the NCAA Tournament, but also likely raised its seeding, as well.
Following the win, bracket experts Jerry Lunardi of ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports both moved the Yellow Jackets from a No. 10 seed to a No. 9 seed.
From a strategic standpoint, the value of such a promotion is questionable. Based on the historical data, the probability of advancing to the second round is greater as a No. 9 seed than a No. 10 seed, but the likelihood of making it to the Sweet 16 is considerably lower. That’s because the 10 seed plays the 7 seed, and that winner generally will face the No. 2 seed. However, the winner of the 8-9 game is almost guaranteed to play the No. 1 seed in the second round, one of the four strongest teams in the field.
According to the gambling website BetFirm, 8 and 9 seeds are a combined 20-120 (14.3%) in second-round games dating back to 1985, when the tournament was expanded to 64 teams. In the 55 times that a No. 10 seed has upset a No. 7 seed in the first round (against 85 losses), those teams are 23-32 (41.8%) in the second round.
Someone who doesn’t want to be bothered by handwringing over getting bumped up to a No. 9 seed? Tech coach Josh Pastner.
“Everyone says, ‘You want to stay off that game,’ ” Pastner said after the championship. “I’m like, No. If we’re the 8, we’re the 9, we’ve got to go play someone, and then if we’re fortunate enough to win that game, we’re playing the 1 seed, great. Let’s go play ‘em and beat ‘em. Let the opponents have to worry about us.”
In Palm’s bracket, Tech would face Rutgers in an 8-9 game, with the winner almost certainly drawing Gonzaga in the second round. A Tech-Rutgers matchup would pit a team that hasn’t been to the tournament since 2010 (Tech) with another that hasn’t been there since 1991 (Rutgers), which is the longest drought among power-conference schools.
Lunardi’s bracket has Tech facing Connecticut (the Jackets’ opponent in the 2004 national championship game, won by the Huskies), with the winner advancing to a likely matchup with top-seeded Baylor.
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