There aren’t many better equipped to break down Saturday night’s ACC championship game between Georgia Tech and Florida State than Yellow Jackets legend Brian Oliver. The captain of Tech’s 1990 Final Four team and the MVP of the Jackets’ ACC championship in the same season is a steadfast observer of the Jackets and also has called multiple FSU and Tech games this season for Raycom Sports/Fox Sports South.
Oliver, a senior project manager for DPR Construction in Atlanta, shared his analysis of the championship, including what he would tell the Jackets if he had the chance.
1. How height difference matters
By the calculations of KenPom, Florida State is the tallest team in Division I. Tech is a bit further back, at No. 249, last in the ACC and fifth to last among power-conference teams.
The heights of the starting lineups aren’t that divergent, aside from 7-foot-1 center Balsa Koprivica.
However, the Jackets also will rely on 5-10 Bubba Parham and 6-2 Kyle Sturdivant off the bench, and FSU’s first player off its bench is ACC sixth man of the year (and freshman of the year) Scottie Barnes (6-9), a point guard and matchup terror. Malik Osborne (6-9) and Tanor Ngom (7-2) are other options off a deep bench.
The Seminoles apply that space-eating length in a number of ways, but it can be particularly problematic for Tech on the perimeter with players such as Barnes and RayQuan Gray (6-8), Oliver said, “because Florida State will be aggressive with you at half-court and they extend you out. Their whole idea is to stop you from running your offense and get to that point where your shot quality is really low.”
That pressure may have been a factor in Tech shooting a combined 12-for-44 from 3-point range in the two games (27.3%), well below their season rate of 35.5%. The Jackets were 5-for-20 in the 74-61 loss in Tallahassee, Fla, on Dec. 15, the team’s second-widest margin of defeat this season.
“I’ve always joked that just because you can shoot it (i.e., are open) doesn’t make you a shooter,” Oliver said. “If they Yellow Jackets’ shot quality isn’t great, that puts them in a bad position.”
Open looks from beyond the arc (and avoiding turnovers created by FSU’s length and pressure, which can generate open-court scoring opportunities) undoubtedly will be top of mind for coach Josh Pastner. Tech is 10-1 when shooting 34% or better from 3-point range this season and 6-7 when it doesn’t. The Jackets can win when they aren’t hitting from outside – as was the case in both games against FSU – but would have to compensate by doing something else (likely creating turnovers) at a high level.
2. Finding a way on defense
To that end, when Florida State is on offense, creating turnovers is essential for Tech. Two of the things the Seminoles do really well – make 3-pointers and pound the offensive glass – are weaknesses for Tech. (It’s possible Pastner could pair forward Moses Wright with backup center Rodney Howard to limit FSU’s rebounding edge.)
The equalizer is what Tech does do well on defense, which is create turnovers with pressure and the quick hands of Alvarado and his teammates. The Jackets rank fifth nationally (per KenPom) in steal percentage (percentage of opponent possessions that end in steals). In Tech’s win at McCamish, the Jackets forced 21 turnovers, 14 by steal, which simultaneously decreased Florida State’s scoring opportunities and created fast-break chances for Tech. In losing 76-65 to Tech at McCamish Pavilion on Jan. 30, the Seminoles’ scoring output was a season low.
“Where they’re vulnerable,” Oliver said of the Seminoles, “is if you can turn them over and get out in transition. That allows you to be able to put points on the board. You’re not playing against that set defense.”
It was an outlier game for the Seminoles, whose turnover percentage (28.8%) was their highest of the past two seasons and second highest in the past six. FSU coach Leonard Hamilton called it out after the game in Atlanta.
“They’re the No. 2 team in the league in steals,” he said. “It wasn’t like that wasn’t in the scouting report. It wasn’t like we didn’t work on it all week. It wasn’t like our guys didn’t expect that to happen. Today was just one of those games where they were a lot more effective in creating those turnovers than we were at taking care of the ball.
“Sometimes, it’s not as much about what you didn’t do, sometimes the other team just outplays you in certain areas. They were a lot closer to being who they were, forcing turnovers, getting steals, getting to their strong hands, finishing at the basket. That’s what they did in this particular game and you’ve got to congratulate them and move on.”
3. Power trio has to deliver
Tech almost certainly will need to have its triumvirate of Wright, Michael Devoe and Jose Alvarado playing well. The Jackets managed to get past Miami with Wright playing poorly and Alvarado hobbling with a knee injury in the second half, but they’ll likely have no such margin against the Seminoles.
In Tech’s most significant wins in league play this season – North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Duke – all three hit double figures in scoring or two of the three hit double figures and the third made an outsized contribution in another category.
“Obviously, if Wright, Devoe and Alvarado, if they score anywhere between 15 and 19, it’s a good chance Tech wins,” Oliver said. “I know Jose’s banged up today. Two of those three have to play well for them to win.”
Devoe’s productivity may be especially critical. The Jackets are 12-3 in ACC competition this season when Devoe reaches double figures, meaning that every win over a conference opponent has been aided by Devoe getting at least 10. The Jackets lost all three games when he didn’t hit 10, both losses to Virginia and at Duke, when just marginally more scoring help from Devoe could have put Tech over the top. Oliver said that he believes that Devoe “has to be special” for Tech to have a chance.
“This Florida State team, because they do such an amazing job with their help-side defense, he’s not going to be able to just play with the ball,” Oliver said of Devoe. “He’s going to have to move the ball.”
Oliver also called forward and energy guy Jordan Usher a “huge wild card” against the Seminoles. Usher has scored in double figures each of the past four games while filling up on assists, rebounds and steals.
“I thought that, at points last year, he was a little erratic,” Oliver said. “I think that he’s settled in and found himself.”
4. Alvarado’s health
Oliver said he’ll be watching Alvarado closely in the first few minutes to see what lingering effect there is from the knee injury he suffered against Miami, as well as other bumps he took in the game.
“The day after you have all those bumps and bruises, you’re sore as hell,” Oliver said. “I want to see, first five minutes, how is he. If he’s out there and he’s not as aggressive, I’m a little concerned, because a lot of what they do is depending on, not too much his scoring, but he’s the defensive player of the year. How is he starting the defense and igniting their defense to turn Florida State over. If he comes out and he’s the Jose that’s very active on both ends of the floor, he’s getting into the teeth of their defense, setting up Moses where he’s getting easy runs at the rim, I think that they’ve got a good chance.”
5. What he’d tell the team if he could
From the player who scored 70 points in three tournament games in 1990, including 17 in the final against Virginia, a game he finished on an aggravated ankle injury:
“I would tell them that this is a special opportunity in history for them. I would tell them, ‘Hey, look where you started.’ I think (media) picked them to finish ninth in most polls. We’ve lost our first two games to Mercer and Georgia State, and everybody pretty much had written us off. Not so much from making the NCAA Tournament, but there’s no way in the world anybody picked us to finish fourth in the league and make the ACC championship. Forget the fact that we got here because Virginia had a positive test. We’re right here, right now, and this is an opportunity for us to write our names in Georgia Tech history by going out and competing against a team that we know we can beat. That it’s on us, it’s not dependent upon them. Go out and give it all and live for today. Let tomorrow be what it is. But today, we’ve got a chance to do something special and write our name in the history books.”
6. Gut feeling
Oliver said he won’t be surprised if Tech wins by five, but he also recognized that the Jackets could also lose by 20.
“I think they’ve got a good shot at it and I think they’ve got a good chance,” he said. “I really do.”
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