The top four teams in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s rankings – the top seven teams, for that matter -- were the same this week as last. But there are still ways such stability could be shaken before the playoff field is set.
No. 6 Florida could crack the top four, and thus make the playoff, by upsetting No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. No. 3 Clemson could drop out of the top four if it loses for a second time this season to No. 2 Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game. And No. 4 Ohio State, which has played only four games because of COVID-19 issues, could drop in the rankings if it has another game canceled.
So, yes, the road to the playoff could turn in various directions before the selection committee issues its final rankings of the season and sets the four-team bracket Dec. 20.
Regular-season games this week and next could roil the playoff race if Clemson were to be upset by Virginia Tech or if Florida were to stumble against Tennessee or LSU, or if Ohio State were to lose to Michigan State or Michigan. But, barring such regular-season upsets, it looks as if the ACC, SEC and Big Ten Championship games Dec. 19 will sort out the top four.
“This is going to be probably the most crucial and important conference championship season that we have had in the seven-year history of the CFP,” said Gary Stokan, president and CEO of the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and a close observer of the playoff selection process. “The conference championship games are going to have huge ramifications on the CFP.”
With no Big 12 team ranked higher than No. 9 (Iowa State) and no Pac-12 team ranked higher than No. 20 (USC), let’s assume the four playoff teams will come from the SEC, ACC and Big Ten:
From the SEC: Alabama is in the playoff if it wins out, including the SEC Championship game, and could be in even if it loses a game. Florida is in if it wins out, including beating Alabama in the conference title game. No. 5 Texas A&M, whose only loss is to Bama, could have a shot at the playoff if it wins its remaining regular-season games and, say, Clemson and/or Ohio State lose between now and selection day.
From the ACC: Clemson is in the playoff if it beats Virginia Tech on Saturday and Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game. Notre Dame is in if it beats 1-9 Syracuse on Saturday and wins the league title game and likely is in even if it loses to Clemson in the title game. No. 10 Miami has a distant long-shot chance that would require Clemson to lose to Virginia Tech and for the Hurricanes to beat Duke and North Carolina and then defeat Notre Dame for the ACC championship.
From the Big Ten: Ohio State is in if it plays -- and wins -- scheduled games against Michigan State and Michigan this week and next, then beats Northwestern in the conference title game.
HOW MANY GAMES ARE ENOUGH?
Looming large over the selection process: At what point might Ohio State’s limited schedule – four games played, two games already canceled because of COVID-19 -- be deemed insufficient to warrant a playoff berth?
Selection committee chairman Gary Barta was asked about that in several different ways on a conference call earlier this week as uncertainty hung over whether Ohio State’s two remaining regular-season games would be played. If either is canceled, the Buckeyes won’t meet the six-game minimum to be eligible to play in the Big Ten Championship game.
“It is a challenge and a problem to evaluate a team that’s played three (or four) games … side-by-side with a team that’s played nine games,” Barta said. “It clearly becomes one of the pieces of the puzzle, one of the evaluation criteria. We’ve looked at it so far (and) I’m sure as we go forward.”
Barta, the athletic director at Iowa, said the committee has no predetermined minimum number of games a team must play to reach the playoff.
“That being said, it is absolutely something we talk about and have to consider … because the more games we’re able to watch, the more we’re able to evaluate a team,” he said.
A conference championship isn’t a prerequisite to reach the CFP, although it is a consideration.
For now, the committee ranks Ohio State No. 4 based on comparing the Buckeyes with No. 5 Texas A&M, which has played three more games.
“There was discussion in the room about putting both Ohio State and Texas A&M in that fourth slot (this week),” Barta said. “When those two teams were put side-by-side (during the committee’s deliberations), there just wasn’t enough there to put Texas A&M ahead of Ohio State.”
He said the committee remains impressed with Ohio State’s “explosive offense under the direction of (quarterback) Justin Fields, averaging 45 points a game.”
KEEP AN EYE ON …
Among the games on Saturday’s schedule that the CFP committee presumably will be watching closely:
No. 5 Texas A&M (6-1) at Auburn (5-3), noon on ESPN: To stay within reach of the top four, the Aggies need to become the first visitor this season to win at Auburn, where the Tigers are 4-0.
No. 3 Clemson (8-1) at Virginia Tech (4-5), 7:30 p.m. on ABC: With a win at Blacksburg, Va., Clemson would clinch a berth in the ACC Championship game against Notre Dame and keep alive the ACC’s hopes to place two teams in the playoff. Virginia Tech, a 22-point underdog, has lost four of its past five games after a 3-1 start.
No. 4 Ohio State (4-0) at Michigan State (2-3), noon on ABC: The committee needs to see the Buckeyes play if it’s going to keep them in the top four.
