The Panthers (4-8-1) blew out the Saints (5-8) at the Superdome on Sunday, so the Falcons (5-7) can lose to the Packers (9-3) at Lambeau Field tonight and stay on top of the historically awful NFC South. The persistent putridness of the South has led critics to say the winner doesn't deserve a playoff spot, with Panthers coach Ron Rivera countering that the eventual South champion will owe "no apologies."
But there's something more at stake than debates about the South champion's worthiness: The team that wins the South will pick no higher than 21st in the 2015 NFL draft, even though the team will have a worse record than a handful of teams picking higher.
The relevant parts of the NFL draft order rules state: "Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order. . . . The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage."
This usually isn't a big deal because division winners tend to have better or equal records than conference teams left out of the playoffs. But it's relevant this year because the South winner will have a worse overall record than a handful of non-playoff teams in the NFC, probably as many as three games worse. Right now, the Falcons have the 11th-worst record in the NFL but would pick 21st in the draft as the playoff participant with the worst record.
The Falcons are in purgatory. They are good enough to win the NFC South, which would preclude them getting a draft pick better than 21. But they are not good enough to inspire belief they'd do anything but lose to whichever team came to the Dome (the Seahawks, as things stand now).
The Falcons desperately need an injection of talent and depth and most cost-efficient way to do that is through the draft. In that sense, making the playoffs as a below-average team would be worse for the Falcons than not making the postseason. With that in mind, maybe it’s better for the Falcons in the big picture if they don’t make the playoffs and get a higher pick rather than make the playoffs, lose and get a lower pick.
Obviously the players, coaches and management don’t think that way—they are professionals who will try to win every game and, after all, they have four games in which to get better. Find a way to win at Lambeau tonight, and it changes the outlook dramatically.
But keep losing and still stay on top of the South, and it will mean being good enough to win a bad division but not bad enough to assure themselves a high draft pick.
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