Deep down, the Braves knew this wasn't a playoff team or even a .500 team. Nobody, however, expected 14 losses in the season's first 18 games, expected to be 10 games out of first place three weeks beyond Opening Day. FanGraphs assesses the Braves' playoff chances at 0.0 percent, and it's not yet May.
The hope for 2016 was to be at least competitive for a while, giving fans reason to keep watching and the newly bountiful farm system time to flower. Hope just got tossed in yonder trashcan, which isn’t to say the Braves are ready to jettison their grand design.
Said John Coppolella, the general manager: “You stick to the plan.”
Said Fredi Gonzalez, the manager: “There’s a process there. You’ve got to trust the process.”
Monday’s starting nine against the Red Sox included four Braves on the far side of 30, and that was without regular shortstop Erick Aybar, who’s 32 and who has been awful. It’s axiomatic among college coaches that the worst thing you can do is lose with seniors; for all their zeal in accumulating young talent, the Braves’ big-league roster is the 11th-oldest among MLB’s 30 teams. How soon before management says, “The heck with this,” and thrusts touted 20-somethings into the majors?
Coppolella: “We won’t force players up … We’re in this for the long term.”
Gonzalez: “I wake up every morning and look at the (minor-league) game reports … It’s always great when a fan base falls in love with young, talented players. But you don’t know what the date is (that those players will be ready).”
Coppolella: “We’re going with young players and building for the future. That isn’t a secret … We just saw a good outing (Sunday) out of Aaron Blair, and that was on the back of arguably the best minor-league outing (seven no-hit innings with 10 strikeouts for Gwinnett) any pitcher has had this season, and I’m not just talking about Braves.”
With the advent of Mallex Smith, who’s 22 and ranked the Braves’ No. 11 prospect by MLB.com, and Blair, who’s 23 and ranked No. 4, we’re seeing the beginnings of what the Braves believe will be a great wave. Smith, however, can serve as a cautionary tale: He was summoned because center fielder Ender Inciarte got hurt. Over his first 14 big-league games, Smith hit .143 with an on-base percentage of .234 and looked uncertain afield. In sum, not what you’d want.
See, there can be something worse than losing with seniors – promoting players too soon. In 2005, the Braves rushed Joey Devine to the majors two months after drafting him in Round 1 because they needed a closer. He yielded grand slams in his first two outings and the 18th-inning home run by Houston’s Chris Burke in the clinching game of the Division Series. Devine was traded to Oakland in 2008. He was out of baseball by 2012. He recorded one big-league save.
Gonzalez: “There’s something here. All this didn’t just happen. We planned this. We didn’t want to start 4-14, but this was the plan. You can’t blow it up.”
Coppolella: “We’re very excited by the way our young players have performed at the minor-league level.”
For those paying major-league prices to watch losing major-league games, that will come as cold comfort. But what’s the alternative? Get antsy because you’re 4-14 and summon Dansby Swanson from Class A just to give the big-city audience something to see? What if he hits .125 and gets scarred, psychically speaking, by his struggles? What then?
All Braves fans can do is wait, which is what the Braves themselves are doing. Wait until Rio Ruiz, the 21-year-old third baseman who’s hitting .381 at Gwinnett, gets two more months of Class AAA at-bats. Wait for Swanson and Sean Newcomb and Ozzie Albies. As Gonzalez said, we can’t know their date of arrival. But there has to be one. Doesn’t there?
