The National League East had four teams finish at .500 or better last season, and it expects to be even better in 2020. The NL East arguably is the best division in baseball, boasting a handful of aces, star sluggers, an exciting group of youngsters and large, passionate fan bases.
Last season was an eventful one for the East. The Braves led most of the way en route to 97 wins, fortifying their status among the NL elite. The Nationals, of course, got the last laugh, capping a 93-win wild-card season with a World Series championship. The Mets somewhat quietly won 86 games and found their next superstar in slugger Pete Alonso. For all their offseason fireworks, the Phillies underwhelmed and stumbled to an 81-81 mark. The rebuilding Marlins were one of MLB’s worst teams.
So yes, while the Braves have claimed the past two East titles, the division is shaping up to be more competitive in 2020. Four have legitimate playoff aspirations, while the perennial last-place Marlins hope to field a much-improved product.
Because the Braves were better than the Nationals during the regular season, and Washington lost lineup pillar Anthony Rendon in free agency, the Braves will probably be considered the preseason favorite. But the rest of the East should present a tougher challenge than the past two years. As the season evolves, it’s important to remember one significant move in Atlanta, D.C, New York or Philadelphia — which feels likely given where each franchise is — could be the determining factor in who takes the division.
Atlanta Braves
2019 record: 97-65, first in East
Notable newcomers: OF Marcell Ozuna, RP Will Smith, C Travis d'Arnaud, SP Cole Hamels
Notable departures: 3B Josh Donaldson, C Brian McCann, SP Julio Teheran, SP Dallas Keuchel, OF Matt Joyce
Ceiling: The Braves could be one of the best two in the National League. Their highest high would be battling for home-field advantage and cementing themselves a favorite for the World Series. After two quick postseason exits, there's hope that this is the team to break through. The Braves possess star power, depth, flexibility and an established clubhouse culture, making them the envy of many organizations. There are questions surrounding the lower end of their lineup and pitching staff, and while shortcomings there could limit their ceiling, their floor remains extremely high. They'll be a team to watch at the trade deadline, too, capable of making a substantial addition.
Floor: If the Braves miss the postseason, it would be because of a combination of underperformances and injuries. Otherwise, they're ticketed for 88-plus wins and competing for a playoff spot. The Braves have feasted on the division the past two years, and if this divisional group is going to give them a better fight, that might result in a lower regular-season win total. Still, quite a bit will have to go wrong to keep the Braves from staying in the playoff conversation until the end. It's difficult to win a division three years in a row, but as a franchise, the Braves aren't exactly strangers to stringing together postseason berths.
Washington Nationals
2019 record: 93-69, second in East, World Series champions
Notable newcomers: INF Starlin Castro, RP Will Harris, INF Eric Thames
Notable departures: 3B Anthony Rendon
Ceiling: While the Nationals lost Rendon, their height is repeating as World Series champs. They kept their pitching staff intact, and that's what keyed their run. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin headline the group, and that alone keeps Washington in the conversation. Juan Soto could force his way into the MVP discussion while Victor Robles is among the most exciting young players in baseball. Replacing Rendon is an impossible task, but the Nationals will manage. Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera and top prospect Carter Kieboom will try to lessen the blow. The Nationals certainly are candidates to make a big move in July.
Floor: Maybe the Rendon loss impacts them more than we imagined. Maybe Strasburg and/or another starter is derailed by injury. Perhaps the Nationals start slowly again — they began last season 19-31, as they'll be quick to remind you — but don't recover so swimmingly. On paper, the Nationals should at worst be a legitimate wild-card threat. But like the Braves, there are unfortunate combinations that could spoil those hopes. If their rotation stays relatively healthy, however, the floor won't be too low.
New York Mets
2019 record: 86-76, third in East
Notable newcomers: RP Dellin Betances, SP Michael Wacha, SP Rick Porcello, OF Jake Marisnick
Notable departures: SP Zack Wheeler, OF Juan Lagares
Ceiling: The Mets' ceiling could have them competing at the top of the NL. If they reached the postseason, starters Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman are frightening to opponents. The bullpen featuring Edwin Diaz (who should be better) and Betances isn't shabby either. Led by their pitching, the Mets finished last season 46-25, bested by only the Dodgers in the NL. Alonso blasted a rookie-record 53 homers, becoming the beloved Met that New York has longed for since David Wright's prime. Luis Rojas, their new manager (we'll brush over the Carlos Beltran era), is highly regarded in the industry. New York is well-rounded and still has the flexibility to make further additions.
Floor: Well, it's the Mets. There's always solid odds that things get screwy. They also might not be able to match the Braves' and Nationals' firepower. The franchise isn't exactly known for its injury fortune either, which could make for a lower floor. The Mets have a wide range of results, but unless they're overwhelmed by injuries or comic storylines that would make Jerry Seinfeld and Larry David blush, it shouldn't be a season about nothing in New York. They won 86 games a year ago and improved.
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 record: 81-81, fourth in East
Notable newcomers: SP Zack Wheeler, INF Didi Gregorius
Notable departures: OF Corey Dickerson, INF Cesar Hernandez, INF Maikel Franco, SP Jason Vargas
Ceiling: New manager Joe Girardi was a coup and immediately brings respect and discipline to the clubhouse. Wheeler was an expensive but effective add who should pair nicely with Aaron Nola atop the rotation. The Phillies need their bullpen to stay healthy. They'll welcome Andrew McCutchen back with open arms after the outfielder's injury took the wind out of their sails last season. This is a talented team, especially at the plate, and it could compete for a playoff spot if a pitcher or three step up. The Phillies lack the assets of the above three clubs, but they won't lack motivation to aggressively pursue upgrades.
Floor: It feels like last season's result is the floor for this team. Another year hovering around .500 would be disappointing but possible. The Phillies are improved, but it's fair to wonder if they've improved enough to pass any of their rivals in front of them. They made only two significant non-Girardi moves this winter in Wheeler and Gregorius. They need more rotation help, though it's not improbable their in-house arms improve. The Phillies' floor is again finishing fourth, but their ceiling seems higher this season than last despite less preseason hype.
Miami Marlins
2019 record: 57-105, fifth in East
Notable newcomers: OF Corey Dickerson, INF Jonathan Villar, 1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Matt Joyce, C Francisco Cervelli, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Brandon Kintzler
Notable departures: INF Starlin Castro, INF Neil Walker, INF Martin Prado, OF Curtis Granderson, RP Wei-Yin Chen
Ceiling: This isn't a team that plans to be shoved around anymore. And if/when it happens, it won't be from a lack of effort. They revamped their bullpen and added several respectable veterans to solidify their lineup. They even ate $22 million to dump free-agent bust Wei-Yin Chen. There's a small amount of positive buzz for the Marlins, which doesn't happen often. They're going to be in last place again, but it should be a more fun season in south Florida. The Marlins are transitioning a new wave of youngsters as their foundation, and they're hoping they've acquired the right players to ease that process.
Floor: Maybe nothing comes together for the Marlins. They're victimized by the East, fall into an unrecoverable hole and sell their veterans at the deadline. If that unfolds, they'll quickly sink to the bottom of the NL yet again. The Marlins' floor is low — they're still the least talented club in the division — but with more hope than years past. They deserve credit for trying to field a respectable product while their youth emerges. But the floor remains low because the talent isn't there, they're in a beastly division and there's the looming likelihood they'll try to recoup value for some useful players at the halfway point. They likely will be one of the bottom three teams in the league again.
