In October 2013, the Braves faced a dilemma. Melvin Upton Jr., then known as B.J., had hit .184 with an OPS+ of 54 — league average is 100 — and a Baseball-Reference WAR value of minus-1.6 during the regular season. Dan Uggla had hit .179 with an OPS+ of 85 and a WAR of minus-1.1.
The Braves considered dropping both from their postseason roster. They wound up lopping Uggla. In three NLDS at-bats against the Dodgers, Upton struck out three times.
Complicating that decision: The Braves had invested $137 million in Upton/Uggla. In July 2014, they would pay the latter $19 million to go away. They would trade Upton and the remaining $46.35 million on his contract to San Diego on the eve of opening day in 2015.
We move to current events. The Cubs have reached the World Series for the first time since 1945. They were the best team in baseball over the regular season. As run by Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer and Joe Maddon, they might be the smartest organization. In Game 1 of the World Series, they benched a player they’d signed for $37 million more than the Braves paid for Upton and Uggla combined.
That player: Jason Heyward.
Since hoisting that famous opening-day home run in 2010 — against the Cubs, you'll recall — Heyward became something of a case study. His back-of-the-baseball-card numbers were OK. His advanced metrics were terrific. In three of his five Braves seasons, he had a WAR of 5.8 or better. (Freddie Freeman had a 6.5 WAR this season, third-best among National League position players.) In Heyward's one season with the Cardinals, he had a 6.5 WAR for a team that won 100 games.
The sabermetric-savvy Cubs signed him last December for $184 million over eight seasons. In Year 1, they got a 1.5 WAR, most of that because of defense and base running. His oWAR (offense only) was minus-0.3. His OPS+ was 70. He hit .230. His on-base percentage dipped to .306. Maddon, the Cubs’ manager, gave him three days’ rest in August to “clear his head.” He hit .212 in September. Then he got worse.
Heyward is 2-for-28 in these playoffs with 10 strikeouts and one (intentional) walk. He was benched three times already this month, but always against left-handed starters — Bumgarner, Kershaw and Rich Hill. For Game 1 of the World Series, the lefty-swinging Heyward sat against right-hander Corey Kluber. The journeyman Chris Coghlan started in right field. He struck out twice. The Cubs lost 6-0.
For Wednesday’s Game 2 against righty Trevor Bauer, the Cubs were to start Jorge Soler, a right-handed hitter, in right field. Heyward was again slated to sit.
Maddon said before Game 1 that he was “not giving up” on Heyward. The belief is that the team will try to remake his loopy swing over the winter. Good luck there. The Braves tried, too.
For the longest time, I saw no reason — his unexceptional old-school stats notwithstanding — Heyward wouldn’t become one of the sport’s biggest stars. But a high-ranking member of the Braves’ organization told me in 2013 that Heyward “will never be a great player, not with that swing.”
That in mind, I wasn’t surprised when the Braves lavished $135 million on an eight-year extension for Freeman the next spring while bestowing a $13.3 million two-year extension on Heyward. Part of it had to do with reality: The Braves — Frank Wren was then the general manager — knew Freeman was more apt to take up-front money while Heyward was all but certain to test the free-agent market (meaning leave) in the fall of 2015.
Sure enough, the first major move of the post-Wren Braves was to trade Heyward to St. Louis for Shelby Miller. That deal benefited the Cardinals in the short term but, seeing as how Miller had a splendid season here and was flipped to Arizona for Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte, will stand forever as a Braves’ win.
As for the Cubs: They’ll owe Heyward $162.3 million after this season. (He has the right to opt out of his contract in 2018 or 2019, but who’d pay him more than the Cubs already have?) As it stands, he’ll face a fight to play every day next year. The Cubs need to find a position for the basher Kyle Schwarber. They have gifted young outfielders in Soler and Albert Almora Jr. They have Ben Zobrist, who’s playing less second base with the flowering of Javier Baez. They have the option of bringing back Dexter Fowler.
The Cubs will give Heyward every chance, but the matter of his swing is no small thing. He’s 6-foot-5 with long arms. He’ll always have issues with inside pitches. For his career, he has hit .227 against left-handers. This year he hit .238 against righties.
At 27, Heyward remains a massive talent. (And a tremendous defender, and a terrific base runner.) This year he stopped hitting. If he doesn’t start again soon, the brainy Cubs will be facing an Upton/Uggla dilemma of their own.
