The Braves enter the final week of the regular season in good position, but with some work remaining, to clinch a third consecutive National League East title.
Fittingly, a week-long homestand opens with a visit from the Braves’ closest pursuer in the NL East, the surprising Miami Marlins, beginning Monday night.
A look at where the Braves stand in the playoff picture through Sunday’s games:
The NL East: The Braves (31-22) are in first place by three games over the second-place Marlins (28-25) and four games over the third-place Philadelphia Phillies (27-26). The first- and second-place teams in each division will make the expanded playoffs, as will two “wild card” teams in each league (the teams with the league’s next-best records).
This week: The Braves-Marlins game Monday (7 p.m., Fox Sports Southeast) starts a pivotal four-game series at fan-less Truist Park. The series continues Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. Then the Braves will wrap up the regular season with three games against the Boston Red Sox at Truist next weekend, while the Marlins will close with three in New York against the Yankees. The injury-ravaged Phillies also have seven games remaining, all on the road – four at Washington (single games Monday and Wednesday, a doubleheader Tuesday) and three at Tampa Bay next weekend.
Magic number: Calculating the magic number is clunkier than usual because of the tiebreakers MLB is using this season for division championships. To clinch a third consecutive NL East title without the possibility of tiebreakers being needed, the Braves' magic number is five against the Marlins and four against the Phillies. That means any combination of Braves wins and Marlins losses totaling five and any combination of Braves wins and Phillies losses totaling four will clinch first place outright for the Braves. But it’s more complicated than that this season. The Braves could clinch a tie with the Marlins -- and the tiebreaker -- by winning the first two games of this week’s series. If that happens and if the Phillies lose twice to the Nationals in the next two days, the Braves could clinch the division title as soon as Tuesday night.
Speaking of tiebreakers: If there are ties for division titles or playoff seeding, they’ll be resolved with mathematical tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. The Braves are 3-3 against the Marlins and 5-5 against the Phillies. The second tiebreaker is intra-division record. The Braves are 21-15 vs. the East, while both the Marlins and Phillies are 20-16. If the Braves win two of four from Miami this week, they’ll clinch the second tiebreaker over the Marlins.
Seeding: The playoff teams will be seeded 1 through 8 in each league, with first-round matchups pitting No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, etc. The top three seeds will be the division champs in order of record. The next three seeds (4-6) will be the second-place teams in order of record. The final two seeds (7-8) will be the wild-card teams in order of record. The NL West champion (the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the San Diego Padres by four games with a 38-16 record) will be the NL’s top seed, while the East and Central leaders (the Braves and the Chicago Cubs are both 31-22) are neck and neck for the No. 2 seed.
Braves-Marlins pitching matchups: Braves RH Huascar Ynoa (0-0, 5.30) vs. Marlins LH Trevor Rogers (1-1, 6.00) Monday; Braves LH Cole Hamels (0-1, 8.10) vs. Marlins RH Jose Urena (0-2, 6.00) Tuesday; Braves TBA vs. Marlins RH Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 2.75) Wednesday; Braves LH Max Fried (7-0, 1.96) vs. Marlins RH Pablo Lopez (5-4, 3.96) Thursday.
Check back each morning this week for the latest on the Braves' playoff watch.
