One possible determining factor in the National League East: remaining strength of schedule. The Braves’ remaining opponents possess a winning percentage of .481, which ranks among the easier schedules over the final two months.
The Phillies have the second-easiest schedule remaining in MLB, according to FanGraphs, with a .478 winning percentage left. The only easier schedule belongs to the Reds (.464), who are chasing the Padres for the NL’s second wild-card spot. The combination of the three teams in the NL West (Dodgers, Giants and Padres) plus the Reds means likely the only path for one of the NL East’s teams to make the postseason is through winning the division.
The first-place Mets have a remaining strength of schedule at .500. They’ll have to navigate much of that slate without ace Jacob deGrom, who’s out until September. Shortstop Francisco Lindor also is working his way back from an oblique injury. New York has a coming 13-game stretch against the Dodgers and Giants, two of the NL’s top three teams, that will be crucial in the race.
Despite the schedule working against the Mets, FanGraphs still pegs New York as the division favorite. The Mets have 57.3% odds of claiming the East. The Phillies are at 25.9%, followed by the Braves at 16.7%. FanGraphs projects the Mets at only 85.7 wins. The Phillies (83.1) and Braves (82) are right behind them.
It’s been said a few times this season, but if the Braves have a run in them, this might be the time. They began a three-game series against the average Cardinals on Tuesday. They’ll face the Nationals, who tore their roster down at the trade deadline, this weekend, followed by the postseason-hopeful Reds.
But after that, the Braves embark on a nine-game trip against three bad teams. They’ll face the Nationals, Marlins and Orioles, each of whom is at least eight games under .500. The Mets, meanwhile, will be playing their western-team gauntlet.
The division is the weakest it’s been in recent seasons. But it sure is compelling.
Braves notes:
- Catcher Travis d’Arnaud (thumb) has played two games in Triple-A, going 0-for-3 with two walks, during his rehab assignment. He’s scheduled to catch seven innings for Gwinnett on Tuesday night. The 32-year-old isn’t far from making his long-expected August return.
The Braves have had a revolving door at catcher since d’Arnaud’s injury. They’ve used seven different backstops this season, currently using a Stephen Vogt-Kevan Smith tandem.
- Smith has drawn the ire of some fans because of his batting struggles (he’s hitting .185 in 27 games). The Braves like the job he’s done with their pitchers, though. Smith was slated to catch Max Fried on Tuesday.
Fried has had success with Smith, owning a 1.89 ERA in three starts (19 innings). The southpaw has worked once with Vogt, allowing four runs in five innings.
Those are small sample sizes, but there aren’t any large samples with the Braves constantly changing catchers. Fried has worked the most with youngster William Contreras, producing a 3.55 ERA in eight games, but Contreras was demoted to Triple-A after lengthy struggles.
