The torrent of votes flooding contested state House races

In the Georgia House, Democrats need a pick-up of 16 seats next Tuesday to take control of the chamber. Below is a list of the 21 House districts held by Republicans – and are eyeing as potential pick-ups.

I’ve combined this list with data from GeorgiaVotes.com – specifically, the share of 2020 ballots already cast, by mail or in-person, compared with actual 2016 vote totals.

There’s no way to ascertain who is casting the ballots, or for whom, but it is a decent measure of intensity. In 15 of these 21 House districts, 2020 voters have already cast 97% or more of the total ballots counted in 2016. Twelve have already pushed past the 2016 total. See for yourself:

HD 34 – Bert Reeves, Marietta (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 80%)

(Dem: Priscilla Smith)

HD 35 – Ed Setzler, Acworth (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 108%)

(Dem: Kyle Rinaudo)

HD 43 – Sharon Cooper, Marietta (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 99%)

(Dem: Luisa Wakeman)

HD 44 – Don Parsons, Marietta (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 97%)

(Dem: Connie Dicicco)

HD 45 – Matt Dollar, Marietta (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 102%)

(Dem: Sara Tindall Ghazal )

HD 47 – Jan Jones, Milton (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 104%)

(Dem: Anthia Owens Carter)

HD 49 – Chuck Martin, Alpharetta (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 112%)

(Dem: Jason T. Hayes)

HD 52 – Deborah Silcox, Sandy Springs (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 121%)

(Dem: Shea Roberts)

HD 97 – Bonnie Rich, Suwanee (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 108%)

(Dem: Mary Blackmon Campbell)

HD 104 – Chuck Efstration, Dacula (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 116%)

(Dem: Nakita Hemingway)

HD 106 – Brett Harrell, Snellville (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 115%)

(Dem: Rebecca Mitchell)

HD 109 – Dale Rutledge, McDonough (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 83%)

(Dem: Regina Lewis-Ward)

HD 110 – Andy Welch, McDonough, who is vacating (GOP: Clint Crowe) (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 100%)

(Dem: Ebony Carter)

HD 117 – Houston Gaines, Athens (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 110%)

(Dem: “Mokah” Jasmine Johnson)

HD 119 – Marcus Wiedower, Watkinsville (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 109%)

(Dem: Jonathan Wallace)

HD 138 – Mike Cheokas, Americus (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 72% )

(Dem: Marc Arnett)

HD 145 – Rick Williams, Milledgeville (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 59%)

(Dem: Quentin T. Howell)

HD 147 – Heath Clark, Warner Robins (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 87%)

(Dem: Stephen Baughier)

HD 151 – Gerald Greene, Cuthbert (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 69%)

(Dem: Joyce Barlow)

HD 164 – Ron Stephens, Savannah (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 106%)

(Dem: Marcus Thompson)

HD 179 – Don Hogan, St. Simon’s Island (Share of 2016 ballots cast: 111%)

(Dem: Julie Jordan)

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