Legislators buy in on transit, but for how much?

Mass transit, long a no-go with Georgia legislators, is quietly gaining traction at the statehouse.

For the first time, many lawmakers, including key conservatives, say the state’s economic vitality depends in part on sustained funding for rail and buses. But as the session begins Monday, the big question — how much funding — is anyone’s guess.

A legislative study committee that voiced a precedent-setting commitment to transit was mum on scope of that commitment or where the money should come from. Interviews with legislators who control the budget levers found nary a whisper of consensus. Hammering out the details could be a long, tortuous process.

State Rep. Jay Roberts, the Ocilla Republican who chairs the House Transportation Committee and co-chaired the study group, said he’s moved from “if” on funding transit to “how much.”

But he wouldn’t venture even a ballpark number, saying the amount his colleagues might agree on “is still a question that’s up in the air.”

About the only thing that's sure is that any money that's allocated won't be nearly enough to buy, say, a major new rail line, at least not on its own.

Here’s one way to think about the gap that separates the cost of big-ticket projects from the money that’s even conceivably available:

One possibility occasionally floated is taking a portion of the gas tax, called the “fourth penny,” which currently goes to the state’s general fund, and redirecting a portion of it to mass transit. In recent years the fourth penny has generated, at most, about $180 million a year. Taking half of it (a number mentioned in the past) might generate a max of $90 million for transit.

By comparison, one of the most oft-discussed potential projects, an eastward expansion of MARTA rail service along I-20 in south DeKalb County, could cost $1.4 billion. That’s not including what it would take to run it after it’s built.

Besides, in recent interviews Gov. Nathan Deal didn’t express enthusiasm for diverting money from the general fund.

“My main concern at this point is that we not jeopardize the general revenue of the state, because there are too many other things that depend on that revenue,” Deal said.

Starting small

Some projects are cheaper, like the proposal to extend MARTA just over a mile, into Gwinnett County. A 2012 estimate put the cost at $140 million. But battle-scarred transit fans aren’t necessarily setting their sights even that high.

“I’m talking about one step at a time,” said Edward Lindsey, a former legislator and advocate for mass transit who served on the study committee.

An initial amount in the single-digit millions in the metro Atlanta area could make a difference, he said, if devoted to creating a governance umbrella agency for the welter of transit agencies there. (However, House Speaker David Ralston on Thursday said he knew of no plans to include that idea in the current negotiations over transit funding.)

One thing’s sure: to garner enough votes to pass, any proposal will have to promise benefits to a bunch of legislative districts both inside and outside metro Atlanta.

“They’re going to try to build support in Columbus, in Augusta for this initiative,” said Charles Bullock, a UGA political scientist. “There’s always a push-back from the out-state against things being seen as just for Atlanta.”

In one sense, just doing something may be more important than what that something is. Allocating some state money to transit will give advocates more leverage to impress federal officials who dole out grants in Washington. And for MARTA, which has long bemoaned that it’s the only transit agency of its size in the nation without ongoing operations funding from the state, any commitment would be a victory.

“If the legislature were to create a substantial funding source on a long-term, ongoing basis, it would attract the (feds’) attention in a way we haven’t been able to attract it in a long time,” said Cain Williamson, division manager of mobility services at the Atlanta Regional Commission.

A new day

Less than a decade ago, House Republicans waged a political war on commuter rail at the state Department of Transportation. Farther back than that, when Democrats were in charge, the majority represented rural regions and had little interest in transit.

As recently as last month, Gwinnett County Commission Chair Charlotte Nash cautioned against even mentioning transit in the discussion over how to solve the state’s transportation challenges.

“I think making the conversation about this too much about transit is going to doom the entire thing from a statewide perspective,” Nash said. “Count the votes. Where is that an issue?”

Now, though, key legislative posts are increasingly filled by suburban Republicans. Business groups are crying out for mass transit as a way to funnel employees past congestion and entice new recruits. Firms like State Farm and Mercedes are deliberately moving near MARTA stations.

Everybody seems eager to woo millennials, the young, tech-savvy demographic increasingly drawn to transit-friendly environments, and decreasingly drawn to Georgia.

“When I moved to Alpharetta 22 years ago, everyone was against mass transit,” said state Sen. Brandon Beach, R-Alpharetta. “Now I’m hearing constituents who want bus, rail — they want the opportunity to get from point A to point B in an efficient manner.”

Counting votes

Perhaps most importantly, Republicans cannot count on their entire caucus to get behind the all-important roads package, because the most conservative members won’t countenance any tax increase at all. So GOP leaders will have to deal with Democrats. And Democrats want transit.

The Democratic caucus is still trying to determine what type of mass transit commitment it will demand, said state Rep. Calvin Smyre of Columbus, a veteran lawmaker who is trying to hammer out a consensus between factions within his party.

“Transit has to be in the mix. And it’s critical that Georgia increase its financial commitment to MARTA,” said Smyre. “To what extent, we’re not sure yet.”

Even with so much still unanswered, it’s clear that the ship is laboriously changing course. In speaking recently about the future of transit, Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle invoked the resurrection of Grady Memorial Hospital, which went from the brink of collapse to fiscal stability. Similarly, MARTA’s improved financial performance has encouraged Republicans, he said.

“We cannot avoid the issue of transit,” Cagle told an Athens crowd at a transportation conference. “I believe very strongly that we have an infrastructure that exists with MARTA that can be capitalized on.”