Where Georgia stands with 93 days until vote
Sunday marks 93 days until Americans vote in federal and state races on Nov. 8, and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is offering readers a picture of presidential race in Georgia in this, the third of four polls it will conduct this year. You can see more poll stories concerning the races and major issues on the AJC's politics page at http://www.myajc.com/s/news/georgia-politics/ and in the Political Insider blog at http://www.myajc.com/s/news/political-insider/. You can also track our campaign coverage on Twitter at https://twitter.com/GAPoliticsNews or Facebook at https://facebook.com/gapoliticsnewsnow.
About the poll
Abt SRBI surveyed 847 registered voters statewide between Aug. 1 and 4. The margin of error for each response is plus or minus 4.29 percentage points.
The survey used both traditional land-line and cell phones. The data are weighted based on mode (cell only, land-line-only and mixed), region (metro vs. nonmetro), gender, age, race, education and ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic). Some totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
Sources: Scientific Research-Based Interventions; AJC analysis
For complete results, log on to myAJC.com.
About the poll
Abt SRBI surveyed 847 registered voters statewide between Aug. 1 and 4. The margin of error for each response is plus or minus 4.29 percentage points.
The survey used both traditional land-line and cell phones. The data are weighted based on mode (cell only, land-line-only and mixed), region (metro vs. nonmetro), gender, age, race, education and ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic). Some totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
Sources: Scientific Research-Based Interventions; AJC analysis
For complete results, log on to myAJC.com.
For months one of the biggest questions of the 2016 presidential election has been whether the division in the major parties over flawed candidates finally give third-party voters relevancy again in Georgia.
The answer appears to be yes and no.
An exclusive poll for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows that Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has the support of 12 percent of Georgia voters — a number that could easily sway the outcome here in the Nov. 8 general election if it holds up. Only 2 percent of those polled, however, said they support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Overall, the poll found Democrat Hillary Clinton leading the race with 43 percent to 39 percent for Republican Donald Trump in a four-way race. The difference falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.29 percent.
Count Angela Long of Whitfield County among those planning to vote for Johnson. Like many, she’s choosing a third party at least in part because of the baggage Clinton and Trump drag behind them.
“I have zero confidence in Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump,” said Long, a 37-year-old instructional designer.
Long said Clinton has a record of “proven dishonesty,” while Trump, “God bless him, is just a hot mess.”
Long considers herself a political independent who is fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
“I’m just voting for the lesser of three evils,” she said. “Who is less likely to get me murdered? Who’s not going to get us blown up?”
While it seems unlikely that Johnson can win Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, his relatively strong polling could lead to a repeat of 1992, when Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton won Georgia with just 43.47 percent of the vote — the last time a Democrat won the state.
President George H.W. Bush finished with 42.88 percent while Libertarian Andre Marrou took 0.31 percent. But the fourth candidate on the ballot, independent Ross Perot, won 13.34 percent with his message of economic reform likely siphoning off support from Bush.
Emory University professor Andra Gillespie said a similar impact could be happening today.
“The third-party candidate (Johnson) is more likely to take voters away from the Republican candidate if the election were held right now,” Gillespie said.
But before Hillary Clinton’s team celebrates the results, it should be careful, Gillespie said. The AJC poll also asked respondents who they would support if the race was only between Clinton and Trump. In that case, 48 percent said Clinton while 44 percent said Trump. With Johnson and Stein included, both the major-party candidates lose 5 percentage points of support.
“What this says for the Clinton camp as they are looking at the states, there is still a group of people who are dissatisfied with Donald Trump’s candidacy who are still incredibly reluctant to support her,” Gillespie said. “She gained some of them, but she didn’t gain a majority. She should not immediately assume Donald Trump’s loss is her gain.”
But for Trump, Baxter Barnes is one of those votes he is letting slip away.
Barnes, 18, of Cedartown, is preparing to vote in his first presidential election. While he normally leans Republican, he said he’s considering voting for Johnson in November.
“I just feel dissatisfied with what the Republicans and Democrats have put up this year,” said Barnes, a rising sophomore at the University of Alabama-Huntsville. “I feel Gary Johnson better represents my views.”
Stein, the Green Party candidate, also appears to pull support away from Clinton, albeit in much smaller numbers.
Clarence Chester, a 30-year-old logistics specialist in DeKalb County, said he would vote for Clinton in a straight match with Trump, but given the option, he will consider voting for Stein.
“I feel that the two candidates that we have on the Republican and Democratic ticket,” Chester said. “Personally, I don’t feel that they would make a good fit for the office of president. I believe they both have their skeletons. I believe they both are … they’re not what this country needs right now.”
Johnson also appears to have room to increase his support here. Marlon Caldwell, 61, of White County said he’s still considering Johnson.
“I’m open to a Libertarian candidate this year if they come forward to present a different side, a different way of doing things,” said Caldwell, a community volunteer. “People right now are open to different things because the way we’ve been going hasn’t worked. We’re just crawling.”
Brett Larson, the chairman of the Libertarian Party of Georgia, said he hears that a lot this year.
“You’ve got so much animosity toward those two main candidates in the race that it’s forcing the issue,” Larson said. “It’s good for Libertarians, it’s good for the Green Party.”
Larson, too, believes that much of the support moving to Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, is at the expense of Trump.
“What you see with a Governor Johnson as opposed to a Jill Stein, you see Governor Johnson not so much as a conservative, he is fiscally conservative, but he’s pro-liberty. What you see a lot in Georgia — I wouldn’t argue as much as the state is red as the state is pro-liberty.”
But, like Gillespie, Larson warns Clinton that Johnson will attract traditional Democratic voters, too.
“Obviously, Governor Johnson is a former Republican, but he’s a former Republican of a very blue state,” Larson said. “There are aspects of what he believes that appeal to both groups.”
Seth Weathers, a political consultant and Trump’s former Georgia state director, said any Republican who votes for Johnson should be prepared to accept the blame should Trump lose.
“Any Republican who votes third party in this presidential election can go to hell for what they are doing to my kids’ future,” he said.
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