The fate of the transportation tax isn't the only key financial question awaiting voters at the polls on July 31. Republicans across the state will also be asked whether they support casinos, and their answer may say plenty about the state's mood for gambling.
The question, which is the first statewide vote on gambling since Georgians approved the lottery in 1992, is nonbinding and doesn't carry the weight of the law. But it comes at a pivotal moment for both sides of the debate seeking to gauge support on the issue.
Developer Dan O'Leary, on an eight-year quest to bring video lotteries to Georgia, has proposed a $1 billion gambling resort in Gwinnett. The lottery commissioned a study showing that three casinos around the state could bring in nearly $1 billion in new revenue to the state as early as 2014. And Senate Majority Leader Chip Rogers turned heads last week when he became the highest-profile lawmaker yet to support a "yes" vote in favor of expanding gambling in Georgia.
Supporters are betting that Georgia, which has long been leery of gambling, is ready for video lottery terminals, and point to its potential to infuse more cash into the financially-strapped HOPE Scholarship. Opponents who consider it a tax on the poor and worry it could lead to increases in crime see it as an opportunity to end the debate for good.
Complicating the outcome is a rift over the wording of the question. It asks whether Georgia should have "casino gambling with funds going to education," language that some supporters think will turn off voters because it evokes images of Las Vegas-style gambling — with high-stakes card games, sports books and chance games such as roulette.
O'Leary believes the vote is destined to fail because of the ballot's wording, and he's been quietly working business crowds and boardrooms to uncouple his proposal with the outcome of the vote. His plan, he tells them, doesn't involve a casino but video lottery terminals, which resemble a slot machine but would be operated by the lottery board.
"God as my witness, I had nothing to do with that question," he said, arms held aloft, at a recent meeting of Gwinnett County business leaders in a cramped office across the street from the proposed site of the gambling resort.
Republican chairwoman Sue Everhart, who said she put the question on the ballot after years of urging from some GOP heavyweights, said the vote will measure the appetite for expanded gambling among Republicans.
If it passes by a clear margin, she said, it will force lawmakers to "seriously" consider the prospect of video lottery terminals. But if it fails, an outcome she expects, "it would send the message that Georgians don't want gambling."
"At some point the question has to be answered, and I think this will answer it," Everhart said. "This will settle it so we can move forward."
O'Leary's plan for Norcross involves building a hotel, a theater, upscale restaurants and a game floor with 7,500 video lottery terminals. It could funnel $350 million each year into the HOPE program, he said, and create 2,500 permanent jobs when it's finished. It wouldn't need legislative approval, he said, because they're already approved under Georgia law.
The plan has drawn major opposition. Gov. Nathan Deal has said he opposes the expansion of gambling, though O'Leary contends his idea would just make the most of the current law. Efforts to reach Deal were unsuccessful. Mayor Kasim Reed's opposition scuttled any chance of the project being built at Underground Atlanta, where O'Leary had originally proposed it.
Officials from the lottery, which has pumped more than $7 billion into the HOPE program, have said they won't consider the project without the support of elected officials. But the board commissioned a $91,000 study last year finding that a trio of casinos placed in metro Atlanta, Savannah and Jekyll Island outfitted with 10,000 video lottery terminals could generate nearly $1 billion in revenue for the state each year.
There are other signs the debate could be shifting. Conservative lawmakers who would once be vilified for supporting an expansion of gambling are now met with little more than a shrug. Case in point is Rogers, who said he would vote "yes" on the gambling question at a recent political debate.
"My philosophy of government is that people should be allowed to govern themselves until they violate someone else's rights," Rogers said in a statement. "It's not my place to tell people how to spend their own money. I don't play the lottery, but if someone wants to play the lottery or an electronic version of the lottery, that's their business, not mine."
Jerry Luquire, the president of the Georgia Christian Coalition, expects the question to pass by a narrow margin. He worries that such a vote would give GOP leaders a pretext to consider expanding gambling, which he considers a "tax" that saps funds away from society.
"It gives politicians cover because it will probably pass," he said. "And in the General Assembly, those leaders who want gambling can say the people are demanding it."
At meetings around town, O'Leary calls the proposal a "silver bullet" that could simultaneously spur economic development in a struggling corner of Atlanta and solve HOPE's funding woes. Lawmakers did away with full scholarships for all but the highest-performing students, and the program no longer pays for books or campus fees.
O'Leary also gamely fields questions from residents and business owners, some who fear the project could bring more traffic to already clogged streets and sink property values.
"I don't want something that could negatively influence my quality of life," said LoyLene Shaw, a Gwinnett County business owner who lives nearby.
O'Leary, though, challenges them to envision a bustling resort that brings middle-class visitors from across the region — and solid jobs for the area. His supporters are convinced it's only a matter of time until this type of project is built.
"Everything is a numbers game," said Shiv Aggarwal, who chairs the area's community improvement district. "I don't know how quickly it will happen, but it will happen."
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