Temp worker demand hints of better economic times

It started after April 1 — as companies closed the books on a dismal first quarter, she said. The reasons are varied. Some companies have seen demand for their services rise — however modestly. They are loath to leave that money on the table, but even more reluctant to commit to costs of expanding payroll and benefits indefinitely. Not with such a chill still in the air.

The jobless rate in metro Atlanta last month was 9.1 percent, a rate expected to go higher. Nationally, about 637,000 people filed new jobless claims last week, the government reported Thursday.

The unemployment rate typically doesn't fall until a recession's end. But economists see temp work as a tip-off: Demand for temp work starts slipping before a recession starts, and starts its rebound before broader hiring is rekindled.

As with the robin, the appearance of hope is often followed by plenty of cold wind and sleet.

After the 2001 recession, staffing started to rise more than a year before the overall economy stopped shedding jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While some economists project a bottoming-out of the economy later this year, economists predict that unemployment will keep climbing through the end of 2009 and perhaps into next year.

Since recession began, the economy has shed more than 5.7 million jobs. Temp work crashed too — sooner and harder.

In two years, temp help categories have shrunk by nearly one-third, while payrolls for the entire economy have dropped a nasty-enough 3.6 percent, according to the BLS.

But fresh anecdotes are encouraging, said Michelle Brewer, senior manager at Ajilon, which places professionals in jobs.

The company provides accounting help to three sectors critical in metro Atlanta: hospitality, manufacturing and health care.

"I am very, very happy to report that we are seeing more activity, mostly in the last three or four weeks," Brewer said.

Health care is one key reason that Kristin Weber, 43, of Dunwoody, is now at Emory. She recently started a job developing a training program for software to be used on both the university and health care sides of campus.

Weber has spent roughly half of her career as a contract consultant.

"I knew when I got laid off, this was the best option," she said. "Most of the people I know getting jobs are going to consulting."

She was placed at Emory by TrueBridge Resources, an Atlanta-based staffing company.

The widespread effort to downsize, to cut payrolls and benefit costs, often leaves gaps in their capabilities, said Heather Scheiderer, director of account management at TrueBridge. "Many of them have lighter work forces, but no less work to be completed."

The larger question is whether those demands will continue to grow, and with them, hiring. If so, then the larger job market should eventually catch up.

CDC Corp., a Hong Kong-based software and services company, offers contract staffing, said Monish Bahl, a vice president in the nearly 200-person Atlanta office. The company has seen a jump in demand for its contract staffers.

"I think the deals are bigger deals than we have done in the past," he said. "But to say that we have hit a bottom — I think that it's too early still to tell."

NUMBERS for box:

Recent peak in temp hiring: August, 2006

Start of recession: December, 2007

Previous peak in temp hiring: April, 2000

Start of following recession: March, 2001

Est. temp help employment now: 2.4 million

Temp employment, start of recession: 3.1 million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association