Metro Atlanta this year should log its strongest job growth since 1999, although income growth is still lagging, according to a projection Wednesday from Georgia State University’s Economic Forecasting Center.
“The job numbers are better than they have been, but what really matters is people’s purchasing power and the income growth has not been there,” center director Rajeev Dhawan said at a quarterly conference Wednesday.
The region is on a pace to add 76,300 jobs during 2015, Dhawan, said. That would slightly exceed 2005 and be the best number since 1999, when the metro area expanded by 94,500 jobs in the last year of the tech and Internet boom.
Overall incomes this year should grow by 4.8 percent, Dhawan said.
“That’s good, but it’s not as good as the old days,” he said, adding it should be 6.5 or 7 percent.
Moreover, the growth now comes in a much larger population than that of the 1990s, when jobs grew at an annual clip of nearly 5 percent, he said. The pace of current growth is about 3 percent.
Metro Atlanta last year added 64,700 jobs
Atlanta’s larger, more international companies may have to struggle with weak demand in some parts of the world, as well as the stronger dollar that makes U.S. products more expensive overseas, he said.
“The bigger companies are battling the global demons,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what the reason is, if they don’t have the money, they will hire less.”
Small businesses — which account for more than half of the region’s jobs – face a much brighter, domestic landscape, he said.
“Together with consumer spending, (that) will keep the economic engine humming.”
One flaw in job growth is quality: less than one-quarter of the new jobs will be “premium” positions in sectors with annual pay averaging roughly $50,000 or more, according to Dhawan.
For example, hiring has picked up for information and technology jobs, which pay much better than average.
“But information represents only 2.5 to 3 percent of the economy, so huge growth here doesn’t add that much, he said.
On the other hand, leisure and hospitality jobs are being added at a double-digit pace, but typically are at the low end of the pay ladder.
Premium jobs are critical for many reasons. For instance, income trends are crucial to the housing sector.
Real estate was metro Atlanta’s main growth driver after the 1990s tech boom fizzled. Housing’s collapse dragged down the regional economy and cost tens of thousands of jobs. Its slow recovery has been frequently blamed for holding back a rebound.
The expected increase in interest rates may provide a boost for housing later this year, Dhawan predicted. As the Federal Reserve lifts base rates for big banks, that will push mortgage rates up too.
“And once people see the Fed moving, they will say that it’s time to buy,” Dhawan said.
The area will see additional demand for construction jobs as developers build office and apartment building in Midtown and Buckhead, and while the Braves and Falcons put up huge sports complexes.
Forecasters generally acknowledge that the science of predicting the ebb and flow of a $17 trillion-a-year economy is something less than precise. Recalibrating predictions is expected.
The number of jobs and the number of people employed are calculated by different government surveys.
One show that there are about 70,000 fewer employed people in metro Atlanta than before the economy plunged into recession in late 2007. The other shows that there are about 95,000 more jobs in the region.
The numbers are not necessarily in conflict, since many people work more than one job.
