Bill Stewart still had a few months left on his Mercedes CL lease, but recently he decided to give himself an early Christmas present: a new Mercedes SL.
"I made another three-year commitment because I felt things were going well. My business is very brisk right now and I felt comfortable with it," said Stewart, a 56-year-old Atlantan who owns an interior design firm. Otherwise, he added, "I would have waited to next year."
People searching for a positive economic bellwether in these still-troubled times might find some hope in consumers like Stewart, who have chosen to spend on a big ticket items even as others continue to sit on the sidelines.
That sort of confidence, economists agree, is critical to the revival of the American consumer economy. The automobile showroom is one place they may be starting to see it.
New vehicle sales nationwide, including leases, are up significantly in 2011, at least when compared to the last two recession-plagued years when auto purchases dried up, dealerships closed by the hundreds and manufacturers like General Motors teetered on the brink of collapse.
Growing consumer confidence, dealers say, is one of the main reasons for increased sales.
"There's a sense that things are getting better. People are starting to feel good about their situation so they're back in the market," said Marc Cannon, senior vice president of AutoNation, owner of Team Automotive Group dealerships in Atlanta, where sales, he said, are up.
Doug Wells, new car manager at Sutherlin Nissan Mall of Georgia in Buford, said his dealership sold 110 cars in December of 2009. This year, he expects to move about 200.
"I just feel the confidence (in consumers)," he said. "There's not as much worry about layoffs this year."
Willing buyers now have better credit, having paid down debt, he added. That enables sales to close.
Mark Frost, general manager of Jim Ellis Chevrolet, said sales at his dealership are up 20 percent in 2010 over 2009, and that after a slow November, December "has come roaring back." Perhaps more important, he said, is that commercial truck sales are up more than 36 percent for the year.
He said that suggests businesses that had held off investing in new vehicles out of caution are starting to replace aging equipment, an indication that they believe the economy may finally be turning for the better.
"There's an old saying," observed Rick Case, owner of dealerships in metro Atlanta, Florida and Ohio, "that car dealers are the first to go in to a recession, and the first to come out of one. Hopefully, that's what's happening."
Another factor in rebounding sales: Pent-up demand. Many consumers have held onto their cars longer than usual in recent years and now feel a need to update.
The average vehicle on the road today in the U.S., including cars and trucks, is more than 10 years old, according to Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association.
Last year, auto sales in the U.S. were 10.4 million and this year it's estimated they will fall around 11.6 million. That's still well below totals of 16 and 17 million vehicles recorded from 2005 through 2007.
Taylor predicted that new vehicle sales "will continue to show signs of strength over the next couple of months. He cited the rising stock market and strong trade-in values as well as the aging fleet.
December, typically a strong sales month, is key for the auto industry as dealers try to reach manufacturers' year-end sales goals by offering various incentives. Dealers say showroom traffic and sales jump in the days right after Christmas and up to the New Year, maybe even leading to the best sales week of the year.
After the holidays, dealers are counting on the growing confidence exhibited by consumers like Stewart, who got his new Mercedes at Atlanta Classic Cars, to drive vehicle sales. That, and a more stable economy.
"When you think of the love affair people have with automobiles," said Gary Dodson, Variable Operations Director for the Nalley Automotive Group, "the desire is always there (to buy) no matter what the economy is. But when you look at new car sales volume, there's no doubt it's tied to the economy."
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