The sting of the Super Bowl collapse has subsided somewhat, the NFL scouting combine is over and free agency negotiations began today . What do the Falcons need for 2017? In answering that question, you have to be careful not to overreact to the last game the 2016 Falcons played.
But I think the weaknesses that the Falcons showed while blowing the Super Bowl to the Patriots are the same problems they showed much of the season. Yes, that includes the suspect game management by their OC and head coach. The hope for Falcons supporters is that Dan Quinn, who is a very good coach, recognizes his mistakes and learns from them so he can be better.
The Falcons have the 31st pick in the draft and roughly $23 million in cap space, according to AJC Falcons beat writer D. Orlando Ledbetter . The Falcons don't need much but the cap and free agency make it impossible for NFL teams to have it all so they have to prioritize. Here are what I consider to be the top three needs for the Falcons:
1. Edge rusher: Vic Beasley was good in 2016, and he figures to get better, but those gaudy sack numbers in 2016 masked his inconsistency with pressuring the quarterback. Opponents started "chipping" Beasley with tight ends and wide receivers later in the season. They got away with it because the Falcons didn't really have an every-down pass rusher opposite Beasley and had to get exotic with stunts, twists and blitzes to generate pressure. Quick-release QBs such as Tom Brady took advantage when the Falcons pass rushers had to take the long route.
The Falcons will get back ends Adrian Clayborn and Derrick Shelby and that should help. But Clayborn has struggled to stay healthy and Shelby really only has produced a half season of consistent pass rush production. Ledbetter reports that the Falcons will wait until after the draft to consider re-signing Dwight Freeney, who showed in the playoffs that he can still be productive and might have one more decent season in him.
There are enough questions about those three vets that the Falcons need to add another pass rusher opposite Beasley. The Falcons should be attractive to older free agents as contenders but, as usual, there aren't many accomplished pass rushers among the second-tier free agents. The likes of Freeney, DeMarcus Ware and Julius Peppers should command pretty good money as mercenary pass rushers.
I’m thinking the Falcons will look to the draft for a pass-rush prospect to supplement Beasley, Clayborn, Shelby and (possibly) Freeney. Even if they don’t get great production from that rookie they will have another building block for their defense opposite Beasley.
2. Cornerback: This may seem counterintuitive because the Falcons already have Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford and Jalen Collins. Trufant is an established top cover guy, Alford's talent shined once he cut down on penalties and Collins showed enough maturity that the Falcons should be able to trust him.
But Quinn said he wants more speed and depth in the secondary. I get that after watching the way the Patriots picked on cormerbacks Brian Poole and C.J. Goodwin when the Falcons tried to play more man-to-man coverage. My suspicion is that Quinn would like to use more man calls in 2017 against spread formations and he can’t do that unless he has at least one more reliable cover guy to play inside.
Perhaps another cornerback is a luxury the Falcons can’t afford when they already have Trufant, Alford and Collins. Maybe they decide to roll the dice again and use Poole or Goodwin as the fourth cornerback (a defensible move). Or it’s possible they decide safety is a higher priority (though I don't think it is).
3. Guard: Incumbent right guard Chris Chester, 34, is a free agent and is contemplating retirement. He was solid for the Falcons in 2016 but, relatively speaking, he also the weakest link of a good offensive line. It would be nice for the Falcons to re-sign Chester but it's not a necessity.
The Falcons need a specific type of guard for their outside-zone blocking scheme: quick and fit. Maybe the Falcons decide to go with Wes Schweitzer, their sixth-round pick in 2016, and spend money or picks elsewhere. But Schweitzer didn't play as a rookie and was rated as a tough guy with limited athleticism coming out of San Jose State.
Fortunately, a young and relatively cheap guard could fit the bill for the Falcons because athleticism is valued above all else. If they decide Schweitzer isn’t ready it shouldn’t be too difficult to sign a free agent guard at a bargain price or use a mid-round pick to find one.
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