The Panthers are going to the Super Bowl after smashing their two playoffs opponents (never mind that rally by the Seahawks in garbage time). The Falcons remain the only team to beat the Panthers this season and finished second on the NFC South.
Using the transitive property, we can make a case that the Falcons are close to being Super Bowl-worthy. Using any other measure, we know that isn’t true.
There was that 38-0 beat down the Panthers delivered in Carolina, though that turned out to be an outlier for the Falcons. The Falcons finished seven games behind the Panthers in the South. The truth is somewhere in between, with the Falcons not on Carolina’s level in spite of beating them once but not really seven games (or 38 points) worse.
There is some hope for the Falcons to catch the Panthers. The Panthers began this season with the NFL's second-oldest roster on average, and the Falcons had the third-oldest roster. The Panthers have more good players than the Falcons but they also have more old players in prominent roles.
Consider the ages of the 10 Panthers to make the Pro Bowl: Thomas Davis (32), Ryan Kalil (30), Luke Kuechly (24), Cam Newton (26), Josh Norman (28), Greg Olsen (30), Kawann Short (26), Jonathan Stewart (28), Mike Tolbert (30) and Trai Turner (22). That's four players 30 or older and two more on the downside of their careers.
The Falcons’ two Pro Bowl selections are young players: Julio Jones (26) and Devonta Freeman (23). Their best defensive player, Desmond Trufant, is 25. Solid offensive tackles Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder are 23 and 27, respectively. No. 3 cornerback Robert Alford is 27. Vic Beasley just finished his rookie season.
That's some good young talent for Falcons coach/quasi GM Dan Quinn to build on in his pursuit of the Panthers. Younger players tend to be healthier and have room to get better. Quinn needs to get it right in the draft and free agency but the Panthers also will have a lot of work to do with so many important older players in the twilight of their careers.
Obviously the Panthers have a big talent advantage over the Falcons. The roster may be old but it's built with pieces that fit.
The biggest advantage for Carolina is its young franchise quarterback. Newton is the best QB in the NFC South. After a lackluster season Matt Ryan is third-best in the division, with No. 4 Jameis Winston on the come.
The Panthers have a strong offensive line because they got it right when they drafted Kalil in the second round in 2007 and found Turner in the third round in 2014. Carolina patched together the rest of the unit with 2014 rookie free agent Andrew Norwell and castoff tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers.
The Falcons missed on offensive linemen in the draft. They patched together a decent offensive line this season but their spare parts didn’t fit as well as Carolina's.
The Panthers have a great defense because they actually tried to build one through the draft: Luke Kuechly, Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, Kony Ealy, Shaq Thompson. The Falcons have a mediocre defense ( improved from awful) because for too long that side of the ball seemed like a personnel afterthought and most attempts to improve it backfired.
The Panthers have a great team with a lot of old players playing major snaps. The Falcons have an average team with lots of old players who are expendable. There’s a chance for them to get younger and better this off season and close the gap on the Panthers.
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