Hawks player preview: John Collins

Height/Weight: 6-10, 225

Age: 20 (9/23/97)

2017-18 salary: $1.94 million

CARMELO projected value: $0.5 million

How acquired: 2017 draft (No. 19 overall)

OFFENSE

Collins played two seasons in probably the NCAA's toughest conference and was one of the top offensive players in college as a sophomore. His 1.161 points per possession ranked second in the NCAA, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Collins scored 28.8 points per 40 minutes with a true shooting percentage of 67.

Collins did most of his work around the basket. According to Synergy, 48.4 percent of Collins’ possessions used were on post-ups and he scored on 69.2 percent of his attempts around the basket for 1.403 points per shot.

Collins is a very good athlete. His standing vertical jump of 33 inches at the combine tied for fifth-best among all prospects and was tops among bigs. Collins' mobility helped him score 1.61 PPP as the roll man, 1.62 PPP in transition and 1.17 PPP on putbacks at Wake Forest.

Collins didn’t show much as a passer or jump shooter in college. He had just 13 assists in the half court and attempted only 11 jump shots, according to Synergy. However, Collins' 72.9 free-throw percentage (including 74.5 as a sophomore) suggests he has the shooting form to develop more range.

DEFENSE

Collins was a pretty good shot blocker (3.3 per 100 possessions) and rebounder (20.6 per 100 possessions) in college. That production tends to translate well to the NBA for top prospects but Collins will have to find ways to make an impact against bigger and stronger players with a relatively short wingspan (6-11.25) and lanky frame (he’s listed at 235 pounds but weighed 225 at the combine).

Collins is a plus athlete so he has the skills to guard on the perimeter, which increasingly is a must for NBA bigs. But Synergy's scouting report says Collins allowed 1.085 points per possession on post-ups (10th percentile) and "often found himself out of position defending pick-and-rolls."

Now Collins will have to bang inside with sturdier opponents with refined post games, and go out to guard skilled bigs who exploit foes that can't defend screen-rolls. FiveThirtyEight.com's CARMELO defensive metric, a combination of box score stats and plus-minus, projects that Collins will have a positive impact at that end.

OUTLOOK

It’s not realistic to expect Collins to dominate around the basket in the NBA like he did in college. Developing offensive range will allow him to be a stretch four/small-ball five, which is a valuable role in today’s league. If Collins can’t do that, then his offensive value is limited as a “tweener” big with average length.

Collins will have to be a good defender to get big minutes as a rookie under coach Mike Budenholzer. He should benefit from his coach’s success in building good defensive units. In the meantime, Collins should help on defense with his rebounding, rim protection and high motor.

Collins wasn't a Top 150 recruit out of West Palm Beach, Fla and had no offers from elite programs. He started just one game as a freshman at Wake Forest before blossoming for his sophomore season and earning the ACC's most improved player award. Collins turns 21 later this month so there's likely still more room for growth.

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