A look into the Hawks’ NBA draft lottery odds in offseason of roster moves

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young prepares to shoot while (from left) Hawks owner Tony Ressler, general manager Landry Fields and assistant GM Kyle Korver watch before the Hawks' game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at State Farm Arena, Friday, Feb. 24, 2023, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS)

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young prepares to shoot while (from left) Hawks owner Tony Ressler, general manager Landry Fields and assistant GM Kyle Korver watch before the Hawks' game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at State Farm Arena, Friday, Feb. 24, 2023, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS)

With the Hawks’ season in the books, the front office turns its attention to making roster improvements.

The first stop is June’s two-day NBA draft, where the Hawks likely will have the 10th overall pick. Beginning this year, the league has split the draft into two days, and as of now, the Hawks could have a quiet second day. The team currently does not own a second-round pick, having traded it to Portland.

The Hawks finished the regular season with a 36-46 record before the Bulls eliminated them from the postseason in their first Play-In Tournament game. The NBA released its tiebreaker results Monday, which made the draft selection order a little clearer. The teams with the three worst records all have a 14% chance at the top overall pick.

As of now, the Hawks would pick 10th and they have a 13.9% chance to move into the top four. They hold just a 3% chance of landing the first overall pick. The Hawks have not had a first overall pick since 1975, when they selected David Thompson, who instead signed with the ABA’s Denver Nuggets.

They have not had a top-five pick since 2006, and their last pick in the top six was 2020 when they selected Onyeka Okongwu.

Of course, the Hawks could make deals that could give them the chance to move up in the draft.

Last Friday, the Hawks held their end-of-season availability with general manager Landry Fields, coach Quin Snyder and 16 players who shared their perspective of how the season unfolded. But they also shared the team’s desire to improve and build a championship-caliber team.

“Now we’re in this space where we’ll take a little bit of time, allow the season to kind of get to a more neutral state and we’ll begin our process, our methodology of how we’re going to continuously improve,” Fields said last week. “So much to reflect on. At the end of the day ... we know we’ve got work to do.”

The coming offseason will be a big one for the Hawks, who have failed to move beyond the first round of the playoffs since their Eastern Conference finals run in 2021.

Part of the work the Hawks will have to do is to find the best ways to maximize the assets they currently have.

The Hawks have questions regarding the way the roster currently is constructed. But they can address some of those questions by packaging them into potential deals that could allow the team to recoup some picks.

After this season, the Hawks could go without a first-round pick until 2028. They do have a protected first-round pick in their pocket from the deal that sent Kevin Huerter to the Kings. The pick is top-12 protected next year and top-10 protected in 2026. If that pick is not resolved by the 2026 draft, it turns into a second-round pick.

This year’s draft class does not have the buzz and “star power” surrounding it that next year’s does, some scouts and draft analysts have said. So, the Hawks will look to make the most of what they currently have in front of them.