Job growth up in Georgia, but so is unemployment

Georgia's unemployment rate edged up to 5.3 percent in November from 5.2 percent in October, the state labor department said today.

The state added 9,900 jobs during the month.

So the overall picture is mixed. Job growth along with a rising jobless rate – and the rate was going up, because more people are in the labor force, looking for work.

“For the third consecutive month, strong growth in our state’s labor force caused a slight increase in our unemployment rate,” said Mark Butler, the state’s labor commissioner, in a statement. “However, in those same three months, we’ve seen more than 56,000 people become employed.”

The department said 21,761 more people came into the labor force during the month, and 15,697 of them found work. Since the beginning of the year, the labor force has surged by 186,888 – generally a sign that people who have been on the sidelines are encouraged by what they see of hiring to think it's worth another try.

The growth is part of a longer, positive trajectory in an expansion that is now nearly seven years old and shows no signs yet of reversing, said Mekael Teshome, economist at the PNC Financial Services Group.

“I think we are not quite at full employment yet, but I think we will get there in 2017,” he said. “The unfortunate thing is that it took so long.”

The unemployment rate is calculated by looking at the number of people who either have jobs or are actively looking. So it can go up when people who've been discouraged flock back from the sidelines into the hunt for a paycheck.

On Wednesday, the annual University of Georgia forecast projected solid growth for 2017, but did say the risk of recession will rise.

Here are six ways to sound smart in talking about Georgia’s jobless rate:

1. The rate now and then. Georgia unemployment rate a year ago was 5.5 percent, so it hasn't fallen much since then. But in those 12 months, the economy has added 98,700 jobs.

2. Longer-term perspective. At its post-recession worst, the Georgia jobless rate was 10.5 percent. Before the recession it was under 5.0 percent. The very lowest rate on record was in November of 2000: 3.4 percent.

3. Relatively speaking. Georgia's rate is now significantly above the national rate of 4.6 percent. It has not been below the national average since 2007, which was before the economy slipped into recession.

4. Still hurting. Despite nearly seven years of job growth, there are still more than a quarter-million Georgians looking for work in a workforce of about 4.9 million people.

The estimated number of unemployed for November was 264,098.

Now, that is far lower than it was during the worst of the jobs crisis. But a historically high share of the unemployed have been looking for more than six months. And anyone not actively looking for work is not officially counted as unemployed.

5. Historically. It was close to an average November for job growth, at least compared to the five previous years. From October to November, the number of jobs in the state grew by 9,900. The average November during the previous five years saw growth of 9,500 jobs.

6. Sectors strong. The sectors adding the most employees were professional and business services the corporate sector, which expanded by 8,200 positions. That was followed by manufacturing, which added 3,000 jobs, education and health services, up 2,200, government rising 1,800 and construction, which grew by 1,400.

7. Sectors weak. Some job losses came in logistics – the trade, transportation and warehousing sector – which dropped by 4,600, and information services, which shed 1,400.

_______________________________

For November

2007 …. up 0.1

2008 …. up 0.4

2009 …. no change

2010 …. no change

2011 …. down 0.1

2012 …. down 0.1

2013 …. down 0.1

2014 …. down 0.2

2015 …. no change

2016 …. up 0.1