Go ahead and write your obituaries for Weekend Predictions. I don’t care. You buried me before, and after I proved you were right to do so, you’ll bury me again. Who cares? I sure don’t, which is why I’m telling you repeatedly how little I care.
My picks were 3-5 against the spread in Week 2 to drop my season record to 7-9. One underdog I picked, Kentucky, won straight up at Florida. Another ‘dog, the Falcons, was on its way to victory until Arthur Smith pulled a Dan Quinn. The only other pick I got right was Arkansas (-9) over South Carolina, and there were some uneasy moments for that one in the fourth quarter.
The Hogs ended up taking care of business, which is more than the Falcons can say.
Falcons (+10½) at Rams
Smith dismisses doubters of his team as “peripheral opponents” and Twitter bots. But real people who put real money where their mouth is also don’t think much of the Falcons. The Falcons were 5 ½-point underdogs at home against the Saints in Week 1. They are the NFL’s biggest underdog in Week 2. It’s business, not personal.
The Falcons blew the big lead against New Orleans but played well before that. That could mean they’re better than the public believes, or that the Saints aren’t as good as expected. Or it could mean none of that. It’s hard to tell in the NFL, especially this early. Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s bad game against Buffalo in Week 1 was a reminder that he struggled for much of 2021 before getting hot in the playoffs. I’m taking the Falcons with the points.
No. 1 Georgia (-24½) at South Carolina
Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer is carrying on the Steve Spurrier tradition of taking unprovoked verbal shots at SEC foes. He threw shade on Tennessee for its 2019 loss to Georgia State, then ribbed LSU’s Brian Kelly for getting clowned by a reporter last week. I’m all for coaches talking trash, but Spurrier’s routine worked at Florida because he regularly beat the teams that he teased. Beamer is 3-6 in the SEC. The jokes don’t land as well if you don’t win.
The idea that UGA will have to overcome crowd noise at South Carolina presupposes that the home fans will have reason to cheer all game. That hasn’t happened since 2014, when Spurrier’s Gamecocks beat No. 6 Georgia 38-35. UGA has won its past three trips by a combined margin of 114-47. South Carolina pulled within a touchdown in the final two minutes in 2016, only to see Georgia respond with a kickoff return for a TD. It won’t be that close this time. Bulldogs cover.
No. 20 Ole Miss (-17) at Georgia Tech
This game is a nice gift from ex-Tech coach Paul Johnson to successor Geoff Collins. It originally was scheduled as part of a home-and-home series for 2017 and 2018. According to Ole Miss, Georgia Tech asked for the series to be postponed so it could schedule other Power Five opponents. The Jackets played Tennessee in 2017 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (a 42-41 loss in overtime) but didn’t schedule a nonconference Power Five opponent in 2018 other than Georgia.
The Jackets have been a home underdog of 17 points or more four times with Collins as coach. Clemson and Georgia (twice) blew them out. They lost but covered against Florida State. Collins has won three games straight up as a big underdog at Tech but never at Bobby Dodd Stadium (the 2021 victory over North Carolina, a two-touchdown favorite, was at MBS). Ole Miss covers.
Charlotte (+19) at Georgia State
Charlotte has allowed 46.6 points per game and lost 41-24 to William & Mary of the FCS. Coach Will Healy told reporters: “People are going to underestimate and doubt us, and for good reason.” If there’s good reason to believe the 49ers are terrible then that’s an accurate estimation, not an underestimation. The Panthers showed some grit against South Carolina and North Carolina but couldn’t finish. Now they drop way down in class. Georgia State is the pick.
Other college games of interest
Louisiana-Monroe (+49½) at No. 2 Alabama
During his “Monday Night Football” broadcast with brother, Eli, Peyton Manning noted that the Seahawks are supposed to be rebuilding but opened with a victory over the Broncos. “Of course, Nick Saban didn’t say they were rebuilding until after they lost the national championship,” Manning said, per AL.com. Georgia fans should laugh loudest at that joke. I ran the numbers on Louisiana-Monroe’s 42-point loss at Texas and Bama’s one-point victory there and hey, what do you know, it adds up to me taking the big underdog.
No. 13 Miami (+5½) at No. 24 Texas A&M
Things are so bad at Texas A&M that Jimbo Fisher is thinking about admitting that he’s not an offensive genius and giving up play-calling duties. A&M’s 17-14 loss to Appalachian State was the latest reminder that calling plays is harder when Jameis Winston isn’t running them. Before the Aggies lost to Appalachian State of the Sun Belt, the Hurricanes blew out Southern Mississippi from the same league. I’m taking TAMU and giving the points on the theory that App State is a much better team than Southern Miss and Fisher’s offense can’t possibly be that bad again.
Akron (+47½) at No. 15 Tennessee
Tennessee is favored by the most points against an FBS opponent since at least 1990 (that’s as far back as the Odds Shark database goes). Maybe the Volunteers will fail to cover because they relax after a hard-fought, overtime victory at Pitt. The problem with that angle: Akron is awful. Josh Heupel’s Vols have put up 50-plus points on better teams, but then again, they’ll likely back off at some point during this blowout victory. I tried talking myself into taking the points, but I just can’t. Vols cover.
South Florida (+24½) at No. 18 Florida
Gators coach Billy Napier didn’t say anything embarrassing or do anything weird after his team’s loss to Kentucky. That’s a refreshing change from his predecessor, Dan Mullen. That will get Napier only so much goodwill in Gainesville if he doesn’t get more out of talented quarterback Anthony Richardson. Kentucky schemed to limit Richardson’s running, and he couldn’t make them pay throwing. USF’s pass defense is more yielding, and Florida’s defense is legit. I’m taking the Gators and giving the points.
No. 22 Penn State (-3) at Auburn
Bryan Harsin has coached Auburn for 15 games, and he’s already on his third offensive coordinator. QB Bo Nix transferred to Oregon after last season to play for ex-Auburn coordinator Kenny Dillingham. Last week the Tigers used two QBs while sputtering to 24 points against San Jose State, which allowed 17 to Portland State the week before. At least Tigers running back Tank Bigsby is good. Penn State is the pick.
Last week: 3-5 (7-9 season)
