When the Los Angeles Dodgers face the New York Mets in their divisional series starting Oct. 9, they will have the benefit of a 1-2 pitching combination that is not merely the best in baseball this year, but, by some measures, the best in decades.
Clayton Kershaw is 16-7 with a 2.16 ERA. Zack Greinke is 18-3 with a 1.68 ERA. Their rates of walks plus hits allowed are less than one per inning.
A starter with an ERA under 2.50 and a WHIP of 1 or lower is fairly unusual. Only Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs has also matched those numbers this year.
Having two such starters on the same team is even rarer. The last time it happened was the legendary combo of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale with the 1964 Dodgers. To find a combination before that, you have to go back to Fred Anderson and Ferdie Schupp of the 1917 New York Giants.
Individually, Kershaw and Greinke lead the league in almost every important category. Greinke is tops in ERA, winning percentage and WHIP. Kershaw leads in strikeouts and innings pitched, and is tied for first in complete games and shutouts, including a one-hitter Tuesday night in San Francisco that clinched the division.
For those preferring advanced statistics, the Dodgers’ duo also stands out. Kershaw leads in fielding independent pitching, which focuses on things the pitcher controls, like strikeouts, walks and home runs. Greinke is the best in win probability added, which rates how every play affects a team’s chances to win.
Excellence was expected from the two this season. Kershaw, 27, has led the league in ERA and WHIP for four years running, though he is likely to cede those titles this year to Greinke, 31.
Greinke’s superb season is a little more of a surprise. Though he has been a top starter for years, he has set personal bests in wins, ERA and WHIP.
Greinke’s 1.68 ERA is the lowest in the majors since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 in 1995. In Dodgers annals, it is better than the best by Drysdale (2.15), Don Sutton (2.08), Orel Hershiser (2.03), Kershaw (1.77) and Koufax (1.73).
But the franchise record is not yet secure. Ned Garvin also posted a 1.68 ERA in 1904, when the club was known as the Brooklyn Superbas. Garvin, by all accounts a hard drinker with a violent temper, had a strange season, as his impressive ERA led to only a 5-15 record with the terrible Superbas.
In an essay about the Dodgers’ current aces in The Players’ Tribune this month, catcher A.J. Ellis contrasted their personalities. Kershaw, he said, has a “very specific plan of what he’s going to do,” while “with Zack, there’s a dialogue.” He continued: “We have a rolling conversation about hitters. He’s asking me questions, I’m asking him questions.”
Like the 1964 team of Koufax and Drysdale, this year’s Dodgers have a big drop-off to the rest of the rotation. No other starter has 10 wins, or an ERA anywhere near Greinke’s and Kershaw’s. Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger have been useful starters, but cannot give the team the innings or the overpowering stuff of the big two.
As a group, the Dodgers’ starters probably have to be ranked behind the St. Louis Cardinals, who go five deep and have surrendered the fewest runs in the majors. But that advantage will lessen in the playoffs. With extra days off, four or even three starters are enough to carry a team.
Starting pitching is only one factor, of course, and teams with strong rotations, like the Atlanta Braves of the 1990s, have sometimes underachieved in the playoffs. But while nine other teams are pondering the best rotation for the playoffs, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has the luxury of writing in the starters for Games 1 and 2 in indelible ink.
