5 reasons the Falcons will beat the Saints tonight

Still hard to believe Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter didn't feature Freeman instead of washed-up Steven Jackson. Freeman is a hard, tough runner who quickly bursts through holes and can make his own yards when the offensive line gets stymied. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has helped out the running game, too. Notes ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth: "Early in the season they ran a lot of zone stretch handoff concepts and they were allowing a lot of penetration up front. Their offensive line was struggling with that, so they've gone to a lot of what we call pitch and toss. Pitch being a strong-side play, toss being a weak-side play . . . (Freeman) is so explosive and he is one of those guys that has been a true catalyst for this football team once he gets the ball and gets the initial lane, man, he turns north and south and tries to punish people at the end of it. A lot of muscle in his forehead. So explosive, so quick and so powerful. This combination is deadly."

2. The Falcons’ defense is good enough

The Saints actually have been pretty good offensively, ranking No. 9 in offensive DVOA as measured by Football Outsiders. The Falcons have been tested just once by a good offensive team, the Giants, and they bent but didn't break: The Giants gained six yards per play but scored 20 points on 10 possessions. Among the Falcons' five opponents the Giants rank highest in offensive DVOA at No. 7. Their other opponents rank 17th (Redskins), 22nd (Eagles), 24th (Cowboys) and 29th (Texans). But if you are looking for a big reason why the Falcons will slow the Saints, it's this: "According to ESPN Stats & Information, (the Saints) are averaging 4.82 yards per play on first downs, which ranks 27th in the NFL and is by far their lowest average since 2005. As a result, the Saints also are on pace to face more situations of third-and-8 or longer than they have since 2005 (28 so far, on pace for 90)." The Falcons rank 26th in the league in yards allowed per play on first-and-10 but the Saints don't appear capable of taking advantage.

3. The Saints have the worst defense in the league

They are last in yards allowed per play, passing yards allowed per play and first downs allowed per game. The Saints rank last in defensive DVOA. The only defensive categories in which they rank in the top half of the league are third-down percentage (12th), fourth-down percentage (tied for 12th) and goal-to-go percentage (seventh). This isn't a case of the Saints facing juggernaut offenses, either: their five opponents have an average offensive DVOA ranking of 19th. The Falcons, ranked No. 6 in offensive DVOA, are the second-best offense the Saints will face. The Cardinals (No. 3 offensive DVOA) gained 7.5 yards per play and scored 31 points on 10 possessions against the Saints (not including kneel-downs) and the Panthers gained 7.0 yards per play and scored 27 points on eight possessions (not including a drive to run clock before punting with 10 seconds left).

4. Even the Saints don’t believe they are any good

If you think the Saints will play over their heads because they are facing their hated rivals then consider what ESPN's Saints reporter, Mark Triplett, said on SportsCenter today: "They are having a hard time staying positive. They have really tried to insist how positive they are. They've made a lot of changes to this team when they did not handle last season's failures well. There were locker room problems, character (and) culture problems, they overhauled the roster. They insist they love the guys, they love the work ethic, they love the attitude. But, boy, they need to see it translate into wins. I think when they had their first win two weeks ago against Dallas and then went out to Philadelphia and played their worst game of the season and it unraveled on them, you really saw that frustration. Drew Brees . . . he is Mr. Positive, and he said this week I am angry, frustrated, disappointed, chip on your shoulder. He's going to try to channel that into a positive." Good luck with that.

5. The Saints lost to a bad team and have were dominated by every good team they’ve played

Sure, the Saints have played a tough schedule. But the Buccaneers are awful and they beat the Saints in New Orleans by a touchdown. The Bucs lost by four touchdowns a home to the Titans (1-3), by 10 points at the Texans (1-4) and by two touchdowns at home to the Panthers (4-0). Plus, the Saints haven't even been competitive against good opponents: They lost by an average of 13 points to the Cardinals (4-1), Panthers and Eagles (2-3).