The Atlanta Falcons might not trade with Houston or St. Louis for the chance to draft Jadeveon Clowney. There’s been so much speculation they will that I’m almost inclined to believe they won’t. (I’m funny that way.) But I believe, as I’ve believed for six months, that they should. Here are 10 reasons why:
1. They can find a starting offensive lineman in Round 2. They cannot find a Jadeveon Clowney in Round 2.
2. Even without much of an offensive line, the Falcons' offense has produced at a higher rate than the defense. In six seasons under Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith, the Falcons' offense has ranked sixth, 16th, 16th, 10th, eighth and 14th. The defense has ranked 24th, 21st, 16th, 12th, 24th and 27th. Even with a former defensive coordinator as head coach, the Falcons' D hasn't once ranked above the Falcons' O. Both units have seen their coordinators change with no real upgrade in results. So it must be the players, or the lack thereof. Isn't a talent of the first rank worth the risk of trading up?
3. In those same six seasons, the Falcons have had one defender — John Abraham — who could be deemed a difference-maker. Even if Abraham didn't always go full speed and even if he was slow to heal from various nicks, he still forced opposing offensive coordinators to account for him. Allowed to leave as a free agent after the 2012 season, Abraham signed with Arizona and produced 11 1/2 sacks. In his absence, the Falcons as a team generated 32 sacks, tying them for third-worst in the league.
4. Bill Walsh, who won three Super Bowls coaching the San Francisco 49ers, said before winning his first title that "the key to football is a pass rush late in the game." It was true in 1981 and it's trebly true in an NFL where even lousy teams throw the ball well. In six seasons under Dimitroff/Smith, the Falcons have ranked 11th, 26th, 20th, 19th, 28th and 29th in sacks.
5. In six drafts, Dimitroff has made only two picks among the draft's first 19. Both of those selections yielded Pro Bowlers — Matt Ryan was No. 3 overall in 2008, Julio Jones No. 6 in 2010 — and those two are the best players on the roster. Both play offense. It's time to balance the scale.
6. For all the debate about Clowney's work rate, there's none about his talent. If he plays to capacity, he'll be a Hall of Famer. If he tops out at 75 percent, he'll still be the anchor of somebody's defense. Apart from Abraham, who was the Falcons' last defensive anchor? Jessie Tuggle? Deion Sanders? Who was their last great D-lineman? Claude Humphrey?
7. About that work rate: Clowney entered the 2013 season on a wave of hype few college defenders have ever ridden — such was the viral force of the Clowney Hit in the Outback Bowl — and some pundits had counseled him to skip the year and save himself for the NFL draft. An indifferent performance in South Carolina's Thursday night opener against North Carolina, for which ESPN focused a camera specifically on Clowney, gave rise to a backlash of gale force. But here we need to ask: Is he still the most promising combination of skill and size and speed to exit college in a generation? If the answer remains yes — and the belief here is that it should — then he should be the first player taken.
8. Falcons fans have reason to shudder at the most recent memory of this team exercising the No. 1 overall pick. But Aundray Bruce, the outside linebacker with the infamous machete, should in no way be confused with Jadeveon Clowney. Bruce was the No. 1 pick of a 1988 draft that was heavy on wide receivers (Tim Brown, Sterling Sharpe, Michael Irvin, Anthony Miller) and that produced a Pro Bowl defensive end (Neil Smith, No. 2 overall) and Pro Bowl left tackle (Paul Gruber, No. 4) but not a whole lot else. As happened a lot in those days, the Falcons got unlucky: They held the No. 1 pick in a year where there wasn't a consensus No. 1 talent. This time there is.
9. The Falcons play in the NFC. Five of the league's six top-ranked defenses in 2013 were based in the NFC. The Falcons played all five of those teams — Seattle, Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Arizona — and went 0-7. They're scheduled to play five games against those opponents this season. They'll also face Cincinnati, the one AFC team to crack the top six. Even with Jones back, this team can't hope to win shootouts on a weekly basis.
10. No matter where he winds up, we're going to be talking about Jadeveon Clowney for the next 10 years. Wouldn't it be nicer if he wound up here?
