From Rise Up to rock bottom: Such was the descent of the Falcons, who in January 2013 were 10 yards from the Super Bowl only to lose 22 of 32 games thereafter.
Just like that, a model organization became a band of bumblers. Owner Arthur Blank — identified as “Uncle Arthur” in this year’s draft prospectus — was recast as a bulldozer of churches; general manager Thomas Dimitroff lost power but somehow not his job; coach Mike Smith lost track of time and his job. Even president Rich McKay, who will run a mile to dodge controversy, was suspended as head of the NFL’s competition committee after the Falcons pumped artificial sound into the doomed Georgia Dome.
From Rise Up to fake noise: Was there no bottom to this team’s plunge? Will happy days ever be here again?
Actually, they might. And sooner than you’d think.
The sagacious web site Football Outsiders, which correctly foresaw the Falcons’ collapse in 2013 and their slight improvement in 2014, has pegged the Falcons to finish 10-6 in 2015, which would tie them with New Orleans for first place in the NFC South. (This forecast comes our way via a post from Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders’ editor-in-chief, for ESPN Insider.) This might sound wildly optimistic; it really isn’t.
For one thing, the Falcons have the NFL’s softest schedule. They’ll play four games (of 16) against teams that qualified for last season’s playoffs, and two of those will be against Carolina, which won the NFC South at 7-8-1. (The Falcons could have won it at 7-9, but they lost to the Panthers 34-3 hours after it was leaked that the Falcons had retained a search firm to help hire a new coach, even though Smith was still in place.)
For another, the Falcons do have a new coach, and Dan Quinn was the most impressive hire any NFL team made this offseason. He comes from Seattle, where defense is played, and he figures to be calling defensive sets for the Falcons come September. Smith did great work over his first five seasons in Flowery Branch — on the record, he’s the best coach in franchise annals — but the point of diminishing returns had been reached.
For yet another, the Falcons had their best draft since 2008. In Vic Beasley, they landed what Football Outsiders projects as the best pass rusher among this year’s draftees. Give Quinn an edge rusher and a tall cover cornerback — say hello to Jalen Collins, the Round 2 pick — and a team that hasn’t played much defense stands to become significantly less pliant.
From Schatz’s ESPN post: “(An) important element of our NFC South forecast is the fact that offense tends to be more consistent than defense from year to year. Atlanta and New Orleans were strong on offense and terrible on defense a year ago. Those defenses are more likely to improve than the offenses are to decline.”
Which brings us back to the NFC South, which was historically awful last season: The Panthers have won it two years running but scare nobody. (Football Outsiders picks them to go 7-9.) Saddled by a salary-cap issues, the Saints lost tight end Jimmy Graham and have become solely reliant on Drew Brees, who’s 36. Tampa Bay is coming off a 2-14 season and drafted Jameis Winston, who’s the utter definition of a boom-or-bust pick.
If you say, “The Falcons have a ways to go before they get good,” I won’t disagree. But nobody else in their division looks any better, and the Panthers have to play Seattle and Green Bay. (The Falcons don’t face either one.) In the NFL, it’s possible to go from being a double-figure loser to a double-figure winner pretty darn fast. We have only to recall the last time the Falcons were working under a new coach.
Coming off 4-12 in 2007, the year Michael Vick didn’t play and Bobby Petrino left after 13 games, the Falcons were 11-5 in Year 1 under Smith. They had a great draft: Matt Ryan, Sam Baker, Curtis Lofton, Harry Douglas, Thomas DeCoud, Kroy Biermann. They signed Michael Turner as a free agent. They played only four games against 2007 playoff qualifiers.
It happened then. It can happen now. From Rise Up to Rise Again.
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