Ten overreactions from the season’s first half:
1. Tom Brady is a lock for his third MVP
If voting were today, the New England Patriots quarterback would win and probably win big. The numbers are strong – 20 touchdown passes, just one interception (which wasn’t his fault), on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record – and Brady elevates everyone around him. But there’s a lot of football left. Aaron Rodgers won last year because of how he finished, not how he started.
2. The Dallas Cowboys are finished
They’ve lost five in a row since Tony Romo got hurt, but they’re still just one game back of the New York Giants in the NFC East loss column. Dez Bryant returned Sunday. Romo is eligible to return Nov. 22. If the Cowboys can even split their next two – against the Philadelphia Eagles at home, then at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – they’ll have a shot, mainly because nobody seems capable of running away with the division.
3. The NFC East and AFC South should forfeit their playoff bids
If the playoffs began today, the 4-4 Giants and 3-4 Indianapolis Colts CK wouldn’t just make the postseason – they’d each host a wild-card game. There has been talk for years about changing that, but the feeling has been that winning your division should be rewarded. So, there could be another sub-.500 team trying to do what the Carolina Panthers did last year: Finish strong in December, then steal one at home in January.
4. The Cincinnati Bengals have made the leap
Did anyone doubt they could win in the regular season? Quarterback Andy Dalton and all those weapons on offense certainly look more dangerous than ever. But this is a team that won 40 games over the past four seasons, only to lose in the wild-card round. Dalton knows it. Everyone in Cincinnati knows it. The next step doesn’t come until January. Securing a bye week sure wouldn’t hurt.
5. Chip Kelly is as good as gone
The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t lived up to expectations after Kelly overhauled the roster in the offseason. But the defense has been forcing enough turnovers to give them a chance, and the offense may benefit from coaches having a bye week to sort out some issues. Nobody truly knows what Kelly might do. He may not even know what he wants to do. The next couple months will sort all that out.
6. Andrew Luck is getting exposed as overrated
The Indianapolis Colts quarterback is a lot of things: banged up, surrounded by a bad offensive line, caught in a swirl of uncertainty about the direction of the franchise. But everyone in the league knows what Luck can do when he’s on, and he’s still in just his fourth NFL season. No matter what happens to general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano, Luck will be Indianapolis, almost certainly as the NFL’s highest-paid player after a new contract extension — and he’ll be worth it.
7. The Seattle Seahawks have lost their grip on the NFC West
Not this team, and certainly not with both matchups against the Arizona Cardinals still to come. Since 2012, the Seahawks are 20-12 in the first half of the regular season and 20-4 in the second half. This group continues to search for its identity offensively, but when the defense is at full strength, the Seahawks remain tough to beat week-in and week-out.
8. NFL officiating is worse than ever
It’s impossible to judge against prior eras because technology has changed both officiating and the way the public can evaluate it. This much can be said: Limitations on what can be reviewed seem more and more outdated, and the competition committee’s latest tweak to the catch rule has increased fans’ confusion. Anything that puts officials in a compromising position needs to be re-examined in the offseason and surely will be.
9. The Denver Broncos defense must carry Peyton Manning
Not if the five-time MVP and his offense play like they did in a rout of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. That Denver D is tough enough regardless of circumstances. Build an early lead, and the pass rushers and cover corners can really go to work. The combination of great defense and good enough offense can be potent. Just ask the Seahawks.
10. The Packers and Patriots are bound for Super Bowl 50
It remains the best bet today, and that’s nothing against the Broncos, Bengals, Panthers, et al. Deference goes to the quarterbacks, and Brady and Rodgers have been the two best over the past year. But the Broncos just humbled the Packers, who head to Carolina next, and the Patriots still have to go to Denver as well. Health and home field are two big factors come January. It remains to be seen who will have either.
About the Author
