The haters said it couldn’t be done and, honestly, they probably are right. But if we’re pretending the Falcons have a real shot to go out as winners, then so does Weekend Predictions. After all, my picks against the spread have a much better track than the Falcons over the past five years.
I posted winning records in each of my first four seasons picking games before finishing 66-73-5 in 2022. It seemed I was surely headed for a second straight losing year, but a season-best 7-2 record last time out gave me a chance to avoid that fate. All I need to do is get six of nine picks right this weekend.
That will be tough to do. Four of the six bowl games I picked feature teams with varying levels of motivation and roster situations, so who knows how they’ll go. There’s also the fact that I’ve had only three winning weeks out of 11 all season.
If I can’t do better than that then, like the Falcons, I should get what I deserve.
Falcons (+3) at Bears
Lots of readers have clicked on the AJC.com article explaining how the Falcons (7-8) can make the playoffs. The team constantly lets its fans down but, bless their hearts, they still have hope. Every realistic playoff scenario for the Falcons requires them to close the season on a three-game win streak. They’ve never won that many games in a row with Arthur Smith as coach.
They have a better chance of pulling it off with Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback. The Falcons scored a season-high 29 points against the Colts. I see a big regression coming against the Bears (6-9), who are strong against the run and rank third in interception rate. Chicago covers.
Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Fla.): No. 6 Georgia (-19½) vs. No. 5 Florida State
Kirby Smart’s efforts to portray the Bulldogs as victims of the College Football Playoff committee fizzled once his team was paired with Florida State. No one wanted to hear Smart’s gripes when the Seminoles had reason to be furious about being excluded as undefeated ACC champions. Both Smart and FSU coach Mike Norvell have said their teams were motivated by the snubs, but only the Seminoles truly were robbed.
That anger can do the ‘Noles only so much good, though. The roster has been drained by injuries, transfers and NFL decisions. FSU’s top skill players are out, and No. 3 quarterback Brock Glenn will start. FSU’s excellent defense will be missing four starters, but the remaining group is good enough to give the Bulldogs problems. That’s my rationale for picking the ‘Noles to cover.
Other bowl games of interest
CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.): No. 4 Alabama (+1½) vs. No. 1 Michigan
The Crimson Tide are in the playoff because the ESPN/CFP College Football Industrial Complex wanted an SEC team. Nick Saban’s teams have been ‘dogs just nine times in his 234 games as Bama’s coach. They won seven of those games, including five consecutive. Georgia was the loser in the past four.
Michigan’s defense is better than Georgia’s, but I’m not picking against Saban’s team as an underdog. I like the Tide to win outright, but I’ll take the points.
CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl (New Orleans): No. 3 Texas (-4) vs. No. 2 Washington
Steve Sarkisian took a lot of the blame for the Falcons sliding from No. 1 in points scored for the 2016 season to 15th and 10th with him as play-caller the next season. In retrospect, he just happened to be there during the dying days of the Dan Quinn era. Sarkisian has come out of it looking a lot better than Arthur Blank.
Sarkisian rehabilitated his coaching reputation with a successful second stint as Bama’s coordinator. Now he has the Longhorns in position to win their first national championship since Vince Young carried them in 2005. Texas is my pick.
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas): No. 9 Missouri (+3) vs. No. 7 Ohio State
Ohio State coach Ryan Day could use a victory. He’s lost three games in a row against Michigan, and two of those defeats cost the Buckeyes a CFP bid. This point spread moved from OSU minus-6½ to favoring Mizzou as key Buckeyes players announced they won’t play, but now it’s moved back the other way – too far, in my view. OSU still has the talent advantage. Mizzou is a very good team with more motivation. Tigers cover.
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona): No. 23 Liberty (+16½) vs. No. 8 Oregon
Remember when Bo Nix was a middling-at-best quarterback for Auburn? Nix got away from that mess and became a star at Oregon. Nix will play in this game, but Oregon’s top receiver and starting center won’t. The Ducks otherwise will have every other key player from the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense. Liberty ranks No. 5 in scoring and will be fired up for the biggest game in program history. I like the Flames to cover.
Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium): No. 11 Ole Miss (+4½) vs. No. 10 Penn State
When Ole Miss star pass rusher Cedric Johnson decided to skip this game and prepare for the draft, coach Lane Kiffin said “kids think about things differently” nowadays. Maybe Johnson would think the same way as Kiffin if he got a piece of the $250,000 bonus that Kiffin will be paid for making it to a New Year’s Six game. Penn State is the pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Saints (+2½) at Buccaneers
The Falcons are in the uncomfortable position of hoping that the Saints win. A Bucs loss in this game and at the Panthers in the finale would open the door for the Falcons to win the NFC South. That’s not going to happen. Who loses to the Panthers? I’m taking the Saints and the points.
Packers (+2) at Vikings
This is another game to watch for Falcons supporters who still believe their team can make the playoffs. The Falcons need the Packers (7-8) to win. The Falcons beat Green Bay and lost to the Vikings (7-8), so they’d have the wild-card tiebreaker advantage over the Packers but not Minnesota. Packers cover.
Last time: 6-1, 48-53-4 season
