Weekend Predictions is on the come up. I posted winning records picking games against the spread in two out of the past three weeks. Those victories were legit. I didn’t need a muffed punt or an indifferent opponent to get over the line.
No pick for the Falcons-Bucs on Thursday night game. Last weekend, the Falcons and Saints demonstrated why the NFL is so popular. Everybody loves watching mediocre teams try to squeeze out wins by making one less mistake than their opponent.
Auburn (+24) at No. 5 Georgia
After Georgia lost at Alabama, Kirby Smart was asked about his 1-6 record against the Crimson Tide. Smart said no team that’s played Bama that many times has done better. The caveat excludes Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. His 2-2 record against Alabama includes two national championship-game victories. Maybe Smart should get some pointers from Swinney, whose salary is $4 million less.
I’ve picked Auburn twice and lost. I picked against them once and won. Now they are set to be a bigger underdog than in all but five games since the start of the 1990 season. It’s clear the Bulldogs have slipped a bit, and I’m stubbornly sticking to my belief the Tigers aren’t as bad as they seem. Give me Auburn and the points.
Duke (+9½) at Georgia Tech
Duke is 5-0 for the first time since starting 7-0 in 1994, with two victories against Power Four opponents. Yet the Blue Devils somehow didn’t receive a vote in the latest AP poll. Surely, they must feel disrespected. “It doesn’t matter,” coach Manny Diaz told Yahoo Sports. I suppose disrespected is the baseline state of Duke football, so this is nothing different.
Per the Odds Shark database, the Jackets haven’t been favored by 9½ points or more against a power conference opponent since 2017. They were 10-point favorites against a bad North Carolina team that year. Now they are big favorites against an undefeated conference foe with a good defense. It makes me nervous that the market sees something I don’t, but of course, I’m taking the Blue Devils and the points.
Other college games of interest
No. 1 Alabama (-22½) at Vanderbilt
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s agent should cite Smart’s comments when it’s time to renegotiate his contract. He’s due for a big raise. That’s assuming the Tide don’t blow anymore leads in big games. I want to back the big home ‘dog, but Vandy has little chance to stop the Tide from scoring 40-plus points so long as the visitors don’t get bored. Bama is the pick.
No. 9 Missouri (+2½) at No. 25 Texas A&M
Texas A&M is 3-0 in games started by backup QB Marcel Reed but lists Conner Weigman as the starter for this one. Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz told reporters he’s not buying it: “They clearly have a different offense identity with (Reed) as the quarterback, and they’ve developed an offense that fits around his system.” It would be very funny if Aggies coach Mike Elko started Wiegman and lost this game after the opposing coach said it should be the other guy. I like Mizzou with the points either way.
No. 12 Ole Miss (-9½) at South Carolina
If you needed a reminder that Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin always follows great seasons with mediocre campaigns, he provided one with a home loss to Kentucky last weekend. Kiffin’s ledger includes five seasons with 10 wins or more, including last season’s 11-2 mark. He never did better than 8-5 in the four previous seasons following double-digit wins. I’m backing the Gamecocks as home ‘dogs.
No. 15 Clemson (-14½) at Florida State
Swinney did his best to take up for Florida State: “Everybody’s surprised (about) where their record is (but) you also have to give the other teams some credit. They’ve played good teams, you know?” No, I don’t know. FSU hasn’t played a ranked opponent. The Seminoles lost to Memphis of the American Athletic Conference and have failed to score more than 16 points in four consecutive games. I’m done with underestimating Clemson. The Tigers are the pick.
NFL games of interest
Panthers (+4) at Bears
No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams has been OK as Bears quarterback. No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels has been outstanding as Commanders QB. Former Bears offensive lineman took to social media to implore the team’s fans to avoid getting “wandering eyes.” Usually I’d agree but, considering Chicago’s cursed QB history, I can’t blame them. Williams was better last week, so I’m picking the Bears.
Saints (+5½) at Chiefs
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been weirdly off so far. I first noticed it when he threw that awful interception in the end zone against the Falcons. Mahomes seemed nonchalant about putting the ball in danger. Of course, Mahomes in less than top form is still better than all but a handful of NFL starters. I like them to cover.
Ravens (-2½) at Bengals
Both these teams got right in Week 4. The Ravens handled the Bills. Derrick Henry still has some big plays left in his legs. The Bengals won handily at Carolina. That normally wouldn’t be noteworthy, but people were starting to talk after the 0-3 start. I still don’t trust Cincinnati’s defense. Ravens are the pick.
Browns (+3½) at Commanders
The Commanders are 3-1 with ex-Falcons coach Dan Quinn. They came back to beat the Giants and gained leads they never gave back against the Bengals and Cardinals. Maybe Quinn learned from his failings with the Falcons. Kyle Shanahan should take notes. I’m taking the Commanders and giving the points.
Last week: 6-3-1. Season: 25-22-1.
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