They changed quarterbacks and played the same game yet again. I’ve never seen anything like the 2022 Falcons. I’m not sure there has been a team like the 2022 Falcons. And no, this isn’t the same as saying there hasn’t been a team like the 1972 Dolphins.
The Falcons have played 14 games. Eleven have produced one-score outcomes. Another – the loss on a rainy night in Charlotte – had a one-score difference with 11 seconds remaining, whereupon Carolina kicked a field goal. Since beating the 49ers by two touchdowns Oct. 16 and losing to the Bengals by 18 points the next week, here’s what the Falcons have done:
Beat the Panthers by three in overtime; lost to the Chargers by three; lost at Carolina by 10; beat the Bears by three; lost to the Commanders by six; lost to the Steelers by three, and now … lost to the Saints by three.
Marcus Mariota had nothing to do with the result in New Orleans. Sunday was Desmond Ridder’s debut. In the annals of this team’s No. 2 quarterbacks, he was better than deer-in-the-headlights Tony Graziani. He wasn’t as good as Matt Schaub. The Falcons didn’t ask Mariota to do much; they asked less of Ridder. He threw 26 passes, completing 13.
These 13 completions gained 86 yards. The longest was for 14. Ridder averaged 3.7 yards per pass, which is bad. How bad? Well, Mariota’s worst game saw him average 5.6 YPP. Then again, Ridder didn’t throw the ball to the wrong team, which Mariota did nine times in 13 games.
Ridder’s showing was the talking point of Game 14 of 2022 – on a day when he barely passed, he awarded himself a barely passing grade – but the new quarterback essentially did as his predecessor had done. Mariota wasn’t very good, but he kept games close. Ridder wasn’t very good, but he did the same.
The Falcons are third in the NFL in yards rushing, third in rushing attempts, tied for third in yards per carry. That they’re 4-7 in one-score games suggests they should be better than they are, but they were 7-2 in one-score games last year, when they went 7-10 despite being outscored by 146 points. The 2022 team has been outscored by 18 points.
Arthur Smith has coached the Falcons for 31 games. Twenty of those – 65%! – have been decided by one score. His Falcons are 11-9 in one-score games, which underscores what the analytics folks insist: One-score games are essentially a coin flip. What Smith has managed is to keep his team within a coin flip of winning when his resources are such that they shouldn’t be coming within a mile of winning.
Coming close to winning isn’t the same as winning. If it were, Dan Quinn would be Vince Lombardi. Coming after the reign of Quinn, it’s heartening to see the Falcons being coached up. Glass-half-empty: The Falcons’ playoff chances have, per ESPN’s football power index, shrunk to 3.1%. Glass-half-full: A team supposed to have been the NFL’s worst will play its 15th game still with a playoff shot.
Say Drake London doesn’t fumble with three minutes left Sunday. Say Ridder drives the Falcons to the winning touchdown. This team of modest means would be tied atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay, which led the Bengals 17-0 Sunday and lost 34-23. That was the Bucs’ sixth loss in nine games. They lead the world’s worst division despite having the worst point differential of the four teams.
The Saints haven’t won consecutive games. They have a 2.6% chance of making the playoffs, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Falcons. The Panthers have fired their coach and offensive coordinator and traded their two biggest names. They have an 18.1% chance, even after Sunday’s home loss to 5-8 Pittsburgh.
The Falcons are the one NFC South team that can win out and not win the division. But – indulge me – if the Falcons finish 3-0, which would entail beating the Bucs, and the Panthers beat the Bucs, and the Saints beat the Panthers but lose to the Browns or Eagles … well, the 8-9 Falcons would play host to a playoff game. Should that occur, it’ll be decided by a field goal.
The above is part of a regular exercise, written and curated by yours truly, available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Buzz, which includes more opinions and extras like a weekly poll, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
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