Something is hampering Kirk Cousins’ downfield passing game

And on passes with 20 air yards or more, he’s 24th at 75.7.

Cousins’ passer rating drop-off from the intermediate- to short-range throws is 32.1 points, tied for the second largest decline in the NFL. He’s in front of only Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets, and do you hear alarm bells ringing?

You likely know that Rodgers shares at least two relevant commonalities with Cousins. Both tore their Achilles tendons in 2023, and both, by NFL quarterback standards, are elderly. (Cousins is 36, and Rodgers just turned 41.)

What is even more telling is that before this season, Cousins (and Rodgers, for that matter) was statistically better on those 10-19 throws than he has been this season. Cousins’ rating on those passes in past seasons going back to 2018, the first season the NFL had such data:

2018: 108.8 (ninth in the NFL)

2019: 125.2 (fifth)

2020: 118.9 (sixth)

2021: 138.9 (first)

2022: 85.0 (18th)

2023: 115.3 (fifth)

And now, 69.1. Interestingly, in all but the 2022 season, his rating on the 10-19 passes was higher than it was for the ones that were thrown less than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.

The easy (and possibly accurate) conclusion is that Cousins’ injury and age have robbed him of his power to make longer throws and, in the process, have scrambled his confidence when attempting them, resulting in what we have come to see in recent weeks, an interception-prone quarterback who has not been able to deliver his team to victory.

No less an authority than Falcons great Matt Ryan has noticed what less-studied observers also have seen. Now a studio analyst for CBS, Ryan said earlier this week on the “Pushing the Pile” podcast that Cousins was making poor decisions and lacked zip on passes to the sideline.

He brought up Cousins’ interception Sunday against the Chargers that was returned for a touchdown, a throw toward the sideline that was noticeably weak and gifted Chargers rookie cornerback Tarheeb Still with the easiest of balls to intercept and run back. Ryan allowed that the interception could have resulted from a miscommunication with receiver Darnell Mooney.

“Regardless, you can’t throw the ball soft to the sideline and expect good things to happen,” Ryan said. “Those balls have to be firm. And that’s kind of been a trend, at least from what I’ve seen with Kirk, is not enough pace on the ball to the sideline.”

I asked Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson about the drop-off in longer throws.

Robinson said that there was “nothing that really sticks out.” He added that Cousins has thrown the ball well, that the quick passing game has been efficient and that there have been times when he has been able to hit explosive downfield throws.

Cousins acknowledged that the pass that led to the pick-six “didn’t have enough steam on it. It was an easy break for the DB to get to it.”

Cousins’ humility in owning his flawed throw makes him easy to appreciate as a person and player. Because of that, no one wants to see this go south. And, really, the bigger problem on that play was that Mooney ran a route different from what Cousins appeared to be expecting. Even if Cousins fired his pass from a cannon, it probably still would have been picked off.

As for his overall performance on throws of 10 yards or longer past the line, Cousins said he thought it was a reflection of defenses across the league doing a better job preventing big plays downfield.

That one’s debatable.

Of the quarterbacks with the 10 highest passer ratings on throws between 10 and 19 air yards last season — the ones that you’d think would be most likely to see a decline — four have improved and six have declined (including Cousins). Of those six, though, four have had decreases of 15.3 points or less. Only Dallas’ Dak Prescott (a 52.4-point drop before his season-ending injury) saw the bottom fall out like Cousins (46.2 points) has.

In fairness, the fact that Prescott surpassed Cousins suggests that Cousins’ issues aren’t related to arm strength alone. He is on a new team, operating a new offense with new receivers and a first-time coordinator.

And he can make good throws still. Against the Chargers, even as he tied his career high with four interceptions to give him a league-high 13, he squeezed balls into narrow openings and hit targets in stride. Regardless, his ability to drive the ball appears compromised, even compared with earlier this season. And that limits what he can do and what the Falcons can do.

If it’s not a treatable injury or bump that’s impairing Cousins, or even if the shortcomings have nothing to do with arm strength, then the onus falls on coach Raheem Morris, Robinson, Cousins and the entire offense to figure out a solution, and quickly. After losing three in a row to fall to 6-6, the Falcons don’t have much time for trial and error.

Here’s an interesting number. Cousins has had a positive score in expected points added (essentially, how much a play impacts the team’s likelihood to score) on his throws of 10 to 19 air yards in six of the team’s 12 games. He registered a negative score in the other six.

Record in positive-score games: 6-0.

Record in negative-score games: 0-6.

It’s probably not that simple. But it clearly matters.